[Evolution of Production-Living-Ecological Spaces and Multi-scenario Simulation of Carbon Emissions in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Vulnerable Region: A Case Study of Qinghai Province, China]

Abstract

Exploring low-carbon territorial space developing strategies is crucial for the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau vulnerable region to maintain the stability of natural ecosystems and sustainable development of socio-economic systems. Taking Qinghai Province as a study case, following the logic of "history-present-future" and based on the multi-period remote sensing image data from 2000 to 2020, various modeling methods were applied to analyze and simulate the evolution of the production-living-ecological spaces pattern and the carbon emissions in Qinghai Province, such as the production-living-ecological spaces classification system method, the land use carbon emission coefficient method, the STRIPAT model, and the FLUS model. The results showed that： ① From 2000 to 2020, the area of the production-living-ecological spaces in Qinghai Province, from high to low, was as follows： ecological space > ecological production space > production ecological space > living production space. ② The net carbon emission of the production-living-ecological spaces from 2000 to 2020 increased from -74.85×10⁴ t to 407.82×10⁴ t. ③ The production-living-ecological spaces of the carbon emission scenario （CE）, natural development scenario （ND）, and carbon absorption scenario （CA） were still dominated by ecological space in 2030 and 2060. ④ The net carbon emissions of the production-living-ecological spaces of the CE, ND, and CA were： CE > ND > CA, in descending order. Qinghai Province should optimize the pattern of production-living-ecological spaces, cultivate and develop new quality productive forces, increase measures to reduce carbon emission sources and increase carbon sinks, promote the dual control of total carbon emissions and intensity, focus on the top priorities of the country, and safeguard the water tower of China. The study results can provide theoretical basis for developing low-carbon land use strategies of Qinghai Province and provide case references for carbon reduction and sustainable development in other regions.

Keywords: FLUS model; Production-Living-Ecological spaces; Qinghai Province; STRIPAT model; carbon emission.