Emerging threats to Antarctic conservation

Abstract

Antarctica, long considered an environmental sanctuary, now confronts accelerating, complex and inter-related conservation challenges. The vast size and remote location of the continent introduce substantial uncertainty in understanding and predicting these threats. Here, using strategic foresight techniques, we synthesized insights from a global horizon scan with 131 experts from 42 countries. We identified ten emerging conservation challenges across six thematic categories. Key issues included extreme precipitation, emerging animal pathogens, human pandemics, security threats, reduced cooperation among Antarctic Treaty parties and potential agricultural expansion. Several of these challenges stem from persistent underlying drivers, revealing how longstanding processes are giving rise to new and increasingly acute conservation concerns. Others, driven by global disruptions, have no historical precedent in the region but increasingly constrain decision-making and international coordination. This horizon scan reveals substantial limitations in the ability of the Antarctic Treaty system to address these challenges, underscoring the need to reassess existing governance mechanisms to protect the unique ecosystems of Antarctica and its vital role in the global climate system.