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. 2025 Aug 19;15(1):30320.
doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-14170-1.

An experimental test of risk perceptions under a new hurricane classification system

Jantsje M Mol  1   2   3 , Nadia Bloemendaal  4   5 , Hans de Moel  4 , Dianna Amasino  6 , Jennifer M Collins  7
Affiliations

An experimental test of risk perceptions under a new hurricane classification system

Jantsje M Mol et al. Sci Rep. .

Abstract

During a hurricane, it is vital that individuals receive communications that are easy to process and provide sufficient information to allow informed hurricane preparedness decisions and prevent loss of life. We study how different hurricane warning scales, the traditional Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS) versus the newly developed Tropical Cyclone Severity Scale (TCSS), impact intent to evacuate and understanding of hurricane severity. We use a between-subject design where participants are assigned to either the traditional SSHWS or the new TCSS scale. We collected data in a large-scale (~ 4000 participants) online experiment to examine potential differences in comprehension, risk perception, anticipated evacuation, and preparation decisions among residents in U.S. coastal states prone to hurricanes. We find that participants using the TCSS scale are better at identifying the main hazard of a hurricane. For evacuation, the TCSS leads to significantly higher evacuation intent as opposed to SSHWS in cases where the TCSS is at least two categories higher (due to rainfall or storm surge being the main hazard rather than wind). In addition, the TCSS also seems to have a positive effect on taking appropriate precautionary measures, though not always at our stated significance level. Overall, our results demonstrate that people make better informed and more appropriate decisions with the TCSS as opposed to the currently used SSHWS. Protocol Registration The stage 1 protocol for this Registered Report was accepted in principle on 14 October 2024. The protocol, as accepted by the journal, can be found at: https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/AYXTK . The approved Stage 1 protocol is available here: https://osf.io/m3swr .

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Conflict of interest statement

Declarations. Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Introduction to the hypothetical scenarios for respondents. Image created in Adobe Illustrator (version 27.1) by the authors.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Screenshot of treatments. Left panel: SSHWS treatment. Right panel: TCSS treatment. In the text-only treatment, participants were not presented with the graphics. Across all treatments, participants could click the more information here button, which lead to a pop-up screen with more information on each of the hazards. Images created in Adobe Illustrator (version 27.1) by the authors.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Map of respondents. Each dot indicates the location of a respondent, based on IP-address. Dark grey areas indicate coastal states, where coastal refers to the ocean coast (Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Texas, Virginia and Washington, DC).
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Distribution of correct quiz questions by treatment scale. Points represent the means for each scale.
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Average evacuation intent by scenario and treatment scale. Means and standard error bars are displayed. SSHWS (S) is represented in green bars, TCSS (T) in blue bars.
Fig. 6
Fig. 6
Adoption of precautionary measures by treatment scale. Means and standard error bars are displayed.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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