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. 2025 Aug 4:13:1614007.
doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1614007. eCollection 2025.

Spatial disparities of population aging in Shenzhen: from China's Hukou perspective

Qing Luo  1 , Zhuoying Li  2 , Yuanjun Li  3 , Yunhao Yang  3 , Jiaxin Liu  1 , Guangbo Liu  1 , Huayi Wu  4
Affiliations

Spatial disparities of population aging in Shenzhen: from China's Hukou perspective

Qing Luo et al. Front Public Health. .

Abstract

Objective: As China's youngest city with immigrants constituting 66% of its population, Shenzhen is paradoxically facing accelerated and compressed demographic aging. Although its overall aging rate remains below the international aging society threshold, the city confronts unique challenges as a migrant receiving metropolis without domestic precedents. Through a novel perspective of the Hukou system (i.e., the household registration system), this research reveals distinct spatial patterns of the older populations with different Hukou types. The findings aim to inform policy responses to Shenzhen's upcoming concentrated aging transitions.

Methods: This study integrates administrative-level statistical data with nighttime light data, spatially disaggregated to a 1*1 km grid resolution. Employing spatial autocorrelation analysis, we identify spatial patterns of older populations. The spatial Durbin model is further applied to quantify both direct and spatial spillover effects of economic, social welfare, and natural environmental factors on the two aging cohorts.

Results: Local Hukou holders show a "west to east rising" aging trend, while older population without Shenzhen's Hukou exhibit a "south high, north low" pattern. Both groups demonstrate strong positive spatial spillover effects within their respective Hukou type. Key influencing factors differ between the groups, with local Hukou older adults prioritizing environmental quality, while non-local Hukou older adults are more closely linked to economic indicators.

Conclusion: Distinct spatial patterns emerge between Hukou-registered and migrant older populations, with three influence categories exhibiting divergent mechanisms across these Hukou-defined cohorts. These dual disparities necessitate tailored policy interventions addressing institutionalized aging inequalities in Shenzhen, and also offering insights for other rapidly urbanizing cities with similar demographic structures.

Keywords: China’s Hukou system; immigrant megacity; population aging; spatial Durbin model; spatial autocorrelation; sustainable aging polices.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Overview of Shenzhen. (a) The geographical location of Shenzhen in China; (b) Spatial distribution of permanent residents with Shenzhen Hukou (i.e., local Hukou population); (c) Spatial distribution without Shenzhen Hukou (i.e., non-local Hukou population); and (d) Spatial distribution of aging rates of 65 years older and above.
Figure 2
Figure 2
The spatialized population aging index and its influencing factors.
Figure 3
Figure 3
The model selecting procedure.
Figure 4
Figure 4
The logic of the research.
Figure 5
Figure 5
The spatial distributions of the older population rate of (a) local Hukou holders in 2020, and (b) non-local Hukou holders in 2020.
Figure 6
Figure 6
Local cluster maps of aging for (a) local Hukou holders, and for (b) non-local Hukou holders.
Figure 7
Figure 7
The influencing mechanisms of factors on local aging rates and non-local aging rates.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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