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. 2025 Aug 8:16:1620580.
doi: 10.3389/fpls.2025.1620580. eCollection 2025.

Projecting suitable habitats and prioritizing conservation areas for Dendrobium shixingense under climate change

Wei Lin  1 , Yingying Ren  2 , Guochun Fan  1 , Min Deng  2 , Yibing Liu  2 , Qingxia Zhang  1 , Xiangxin Xu  1 , Shiting Huang  1 , Hua Zhang  1 , Junsheng Qi  1   3
Affiliations

Projecting suitable habitats and prioritizing conservation areas for Dendrobium shixingense under climate change

Wei Lin et al. Front Plant Sci. .

Abstract

Dendrobium shixingense Z. L. Chen, S. J. Zeng & J. Duan, a National Class II Protected wild plant species in China, is renowned for its rich polysaccharide content and remarkable medicinal value. Delineating priority conservation areas for this species is critically important for its sustainable conservation and management. In this study, the MaxEnt model was applied to predict its potential distribution patterns under multiple climate scenarios, while the Marxan and InVEST models were utilized to identify priority conservation zones. Results demonstrate that the primary distribution of D. shixingense is concentrated in southeastern China, particularly within Guangdong, Fujian, Guangxi, and Jiangxi provinces, with a total suitable habitat area of 79.41 × 104km2. Future projections indicate an expansion of suitable habitats, with key environmental drivers identified as precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19), mean diurnal temperature range (Bio2), among others. Priority conservation areas are predominantly located in Shixing County and Ruyuan Yao Autonomous County of Shaoguan City; Xing'an County of Guilin City and other specified regions. These findings indicate that climate change will substantially impact the distribution of D. shixingense, potentially altering both the extent and quality of suitable habitats. priority conservation areas are concentrated in ecologically stable regions, necessitating enhanced protection efforts in these zones. Collectively, this research provides a robust scientific foundation for formulating effective conservation strategies and advancing the sustainable development of D. shixingense.

Keywords: Dendrobium shixingense Z. L. Chen; InVEST; Marxan; MaxEnt; S. J. Zeng & J. Duan; Suitable area; priority protected area.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Geographical distribution point of D.shixingense (A), Illustration of D.shixingense (B).
Figure 2
Figure 2
Spearman correlation analysis of bioclimatic factors.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Spearman correlation analysis of soil factors.
Figure 4
Figure 4
ROC curve for current climate prediction of D. shixingense.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Suitable area for D. shixingense under current climate.
Figure 6
Figure 6
Single factor response curve of the current climate. (A) bio19, (B) bio12, (C) Altitude, (D) Soil pH, (E) bio9.
Figure 7
Figure 7
Regularized training gain of the MaxEnt model based on the jackknife test.
Figure 8
Figure 8
Suitable distribution areas of D. shixingense in SSP126 (A-C), SSP245 (D-F), SSP 585 (G-I) scenarios in the 2021-2040 (A, D, G), 2041-2060 (B, E, H) and 2061-2080 (C, F, I).
Figure 9
Figure 9
Spatial changes of geographical distribution of D. shixingense in SSP126 (A-C), SSP245 (D-F), SSP 585 (G-I) scenarios in the 2021-2040 (A, D, G), 2041-2060 (B, E, H) and 2061-2080 (C, F, I).
Figure 10
Figure 10
Geographical changes of the central particle in D. shixingense under different climatic scenarios and periods.
Figure 11
Figure 11
D. shixingense Priority Protection Area [(A) is the priority protected area for identifying Marxan, (B-D) stands for habitat quality in protected areas)].
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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