Natural history and development of a novel composite endpoint in patients with alcohol-associated hepatitis: Data from a prospective multicenter study

Abstract

Background aims: The clinical course and outcomes of alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) remain poorly understood. Major adverse liver outcomes do not capture the added risk of return to drinking. We examined the natural history of AH and developed a composite endpoint using a contemporary observational cohort of AH.

Approach results: A cohort of 1127 participants: 712 AH patients, 256 heavy drinking controls without clinically evident liver disease, and 159 healthy controls, were prospectively followed for 6 months at 8 United States centers as part of the Alcoholic Hepatitis Network (AlcHepNet) consortium. Outcomes included mortality and a composite endpoint (AlcHepNet composite index) that included death, liver transplantation, hepatic decompensation (new onset/worsening ascites, HE, variceal bleeding), liver-related hospital admission, MELD increase ≥5, and return to drinking. Of 712 AH patients (age 45±10.7 y; 59.1% male), 558 (79.0%) had severe and 148 (21.0%) had moderate AH, 232 (32.5%) died, and 86 (12.1%) underwent liver transplantation. Mortality rates in moderate AH and severe AH were 0.7% versus 17.2% (30 d), 3.4% versus 26.5% (90 d), and 8.8% versus 30.5% (180 d), respectively (all p <0.001). Composite liver/alcohol use events were noted in 459 (64.5%) AH patients. Higher MELD score, lower mean arterial pressure, and baseline leukocytosis were associated with higher 90-day mortality in AH (all p <0.05). College education and higher ALP were associated with lower mortality. Heavy drinking controls had low mortality (n=3; 1.2%).

Conclusions: This large observational study showed a high incidence of composite liver and alcohol-use events within 6 months, reiterating the need for early interventions.

Keywords: alcohol-associated hepatitis; composite event; multicenter; outcomes; prospective.