Unveiling Mexico's Demographic Transitions

Abstract

This study examines Mexico's fertility transition (1930-2015) and how socioeconomic status (SES), geography, and indigeneity shaped reproductive behaviors. Using net fertility-the number of surviving children under five-we assess how prestige bias (adopting high-status fertility norms) and conformism bias (aligning with local norms) influenced change across distinct population groups. We introduce the time, space, and population model to analyze the combined effects of macrostructural forces, spatial diffusion, and individual decision-making. Our spatial analysis reveals a concentric diffusion pattern, where fertility changes spread outward from urban, high-SES municipalities. Findings reveal a consistent negative association between SES and fertility across all periods, though with varying intensity. Higher status populations led the fertility decline, but patterns differed by group and over time. Fertility declined at different rates across four groups: urban non-Indigenous populations transitioned rapidly, rural non-Indigenous groups stagnated, rural Indigenous populations experienced delays, and urban Indigenous groups resisted fertility decline. Evidence suggests non-Indigenous populations regulated fertility through retarding marriage before widespread contraceptive adoption, while Indigenous groups followed more conformist behaviors. This study integrates historical demographic data into a structured framework, improving research on long-term fertility transitions.

FIGURE 1

Time, space, and population framework NOTE: Own elaboration. The diagram outlines the time, space, and population (TSP) framework. The variables analyzed in the study are conceptually located within the levels denoted by N₁ to N₄, corresponding to individual, microsystem, exosystem, and macrosystem dimensions of reproductive behavior. SOURCE: Author's elaboration based on the conceptualization of multilevel determinants of fertility in Mexico.

FIGURE 2

Demographic pathways in Mexico by ethnogeographic group, 1930–2015 NOTE: Own elaboration. The figure shows the percentage decrease in net fertility by socioeconomic status (InSoc) across four ethnogeographic groups. Fertility trajectories reflect heterogeneous transitions shaped by the intersection of cultural, spatial, and structural factors. SOURCE: Author's calculations based on Mexican census microdata, 1930, 1970, and 2015.

FIGURE 3

(a) Relative risk of having a child aged under five in 1930, INLA model. (b) Relative risk of having a child aged under five in 1970, INLA model. (c) Relative risk of having a child aged under five in 2015, INLA model NOTE: Own elaboration. The dependent variable is net fertility. Independent variables include the proportion of the population in the lowest socioeconomic category and ethnogeographic classification. The interactive map for (a) is available at 1930Map. The interactive map for (b) is available at 1970Map. The interactive map for (c) is available at 2015Map. To access the detailed statistics for each municipality, readers should first download the file to their device and then open it in a web browser. SOURCE: For (a), the author's calculations are based on 1930 Mexican census microdata. For (b), the author's calculations are based on 1970 Mexican census microdata. For (c), the author's calculations are based on the 2015 Intercensal Survey (INEGI).

FIGURE 4

Coefficient of variation (CV) in net fertility by ethnogeographic group and year, 1930–2015 NOTE: Own elaboration. Each bar represents the mean CV in net fertility for a given ethnogeographic group and census year. The lower (LCI) and upper (UCI) confidence interval bounds indicate the range of variation around the mean. Higher CV values reflect greater within‐group heterogeneity in reproductive behavior, highlighting differences in the pace and pattern of fertility transitions. SOURCE: Author's calculations based on Mexican census microdata, 1930–2015.