Critical mineral bottlenecks constrain sub-technology choices in low-carbon energy deployment

Abstract

To meet global climate targets, countries aim to triple renewable energy capacity and rapidly deploy other low-carbon technologies by 2030. We assess the critical mineral demand required to meet these goals using a bottom-up, scenario-based approach and examine how mineral bottlenecks affect sub-technology choices. Our analysis yields three key findings. First, annual demand for critical minerals is projected to rise 6-fold, from 4.7 million tons in 2022 to 30 million tons by 2030. Second, minerals such as natural graphite, cobalt, lithium, tellurium, indium, silver, aluminum, copper, and rare earth elements may face supply constraints. Third, specific sub-technologies depend heavily on certain minerals: cadmium and tellurium shortages could limit thin-film photovoltaics; indium scarcity may hinder perovskite tandem cells; rare earths are vital for permanent-magnet wind turbines; and lithium is a key for all-solid-state batteries. Improving material efficiency and advancing mineral-efficient technologies will be essential for a resilient energy transition.

Keywords: Energy engineering; Energy resources; Environmental technology.

Graphical abstract

Figure 1

Sub-technology scenario design 2022 Current represents the current market share of each sub-technology, while Baseline Scenario 2030 reflects conservative projections of sub-technology market share changes based on market trends. (A) Photovoltaics: In the MoreTD 2030 scenario, perovskite tandem cells achieve a 20% market share by 2030, while in the MoreTF 2030 scenario, CdTe and CIGS collectively capture 20% of the market by 2030. (B) Wind Power: In the MoreDD scenario, DD-PMSG turbines expand their market share to 40% by 2030, and in the MoreGP scenario, medium-speed turbines using gearbox and PMSG (GB-PMSG) technology also achieve a 40% market share by 2030. (C) Electric vehicles (including PHEVs): In the MoreHN scenario, the market share of LFP batteries decreases to 20% by 2030, while in the MoreAB scenario, solid-state batteries begin market penetration in 2026 and achieve a 10% market share by 2030.

Figure 2

Projected mineral demand in 2030 relative to current supply levels This figure illustrates the ratio of annual demand for 21 minerals included in the study to primary supply levels in 2023. The comparison is made between 2022 and the baseline scenario for 2030 (blue to purple bars representing demand from various low carbon energy technologies, and gray bars for demand from other sectors). The demand from other sectors is based on the global consumption data for 2022 and 2023, minus the demand from the selected technologies in 2022, assuming no change by 2030 as a conservative estimate (see Supplementary Information for details). The red line indicates the current primary supply levels. Magnet REEs include four elements: Dy, Nd, Pr, and Tb. Minerals marked with an asterisk (Te, Se, Na, Mn, and Si) lack data for demand from other sectors. In 2030, In demand is projected to reach 545.4% of the current primary supply levels. C represents graphite, encompassing both natural and synthetic graphite. Si represents polysilicon alone.

Figure 3

Demand for critical minerals required by selected photovoltaic technologies This figure illustrates the demand for critical minerals required by selected photovoltaic technologies in 2022 and 2030 under the baseline scenario, the MoreTF scenario, and the MoreTD scenario. Blue bars represent material demand for crystalline silicon photovoltaic technology, orange bars correspond to thin-film photovoltaic technology, and green bars depict material demand for emerging tandem technologies. (A) Silver. (B) Indium. (C) Cadmium, Tellurium, Gallium and Selenium.

Figure 4

Demand for critical minerals required by selected wind power technologies This figure compares the demand for selected critical minerals required for wind power in 2022 and 2030 under the baseline scenario, the MoreDD scenario, and the MoreGP scenario. (A) Aluminum. (B) Copper. (C) Molybdenum. (D) Nickel. (E) Chromium. (F) Magnet Rare Earth Elements.

Figure 5

Demand for critical minerals required by selected battery technologies This figure compares the demand for selected critical minerals required by various battery technologies in 2022 and 2030 under the BAU, MoreHN, and MoreAB scenarios. (A) Copper. (B) Lithium. (C) Cobalt. (D) Nickel. (E) Manganese. (F) Graphite.