A Practical Guide to Using Futures Methods in Health Care: Approaches, Applications, and Case Studies

Abstract

Researchers and health care institutions have increasingly applied structured futures methods-such as the futures wheel, scenario analysis, forecasting, and horizon scanning-to systematically explore, generate, and prepare for multiple possible futures. However, discussions around the future of medicine, specialties, or therapeutic areas have often relied on the subjective opinions or perspectives of key opinion leaders rather than on future strategies, policies, visions, and scenarios that are grounded in rigorous and established methods. This underscores the need for futures methods to be widely adopted and effectively incorporated into both medical practice and health care policymaking. Integrating structured foresight techniques into strategic planning enables clinicians and policymakers to transition from reactive decision-making to proactive, plausible approaches that shape a more resilient and adaptive health care system. Our goal with this paper is to provide a methodological guide that is supported by case studies, demonstrating how futures methods can be systematically applied in health care. By offering practical examples, we intend to empower medical professionals, health care leaders, researchers, patients, and policymakers with the tools to anticipate and navigate future challenges and opportunities more effectively.

Keywords: foresight; future; futures methods; health care; medicine.

Figure 1

A sample futures wheel with a central statement or trend and primary, then secondary consequences in categories such as legal, technological, or social impact.

Figure 2

A sample scenario analysis with a key driving force, a key uncertainty, and 4 possible scenarios based on the combinations of the 2 factors.

Figure 3

A summary of futures methods and for what purposes each method could be a good fit.