Priority climate and health modelling needs

Kristie L Ebi¹, Peng Bi², Kathryn Bowen³, Michael Brauer⁴, Paul L C Chua⁵, Felipe J Colón-González⁶, Asya Dimitrova⁷, Antonio Gasparrini⁸, Nelson Gouveia⁹, Shakoor Hajat⁸, Ian Hamilton¹⁰, Sherilee Harper¹¹, Tomoko Hasegawa¹², Masahiro Hashizume⁵, Clare Heaviside¹³, Yasushi Honda¹⁴, Carole Green¹⁵, Chris Jack¹⁶, Ho Kim¹⁷, Patrick Kinney¹⁸, Brama Kone¹⁹, Sari Kovats⁸, Simon J Lloyd²⁰, Andrew P Morse²¹, Nicholas H Ogden²², Shlomit Paz²³, Jeff Price²⁴, Sadie J Ryan²⁵, Jan C Semenza²⁶, Timothy Sheehan¹⁵, Rachael Taylor⁶, Bas van Ruijven²⁷, Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera²⁸, Rachel Warren²⁴, Ben Zaitchik²⁹, Jeremy J Hess¹⁵

Affiliations

¹ Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, School of Public, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA. Electronic address: krisebi@uw.edu.
² School of Public Health, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia.
³ Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
⁴ School of Population and Public Health, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
⁵ Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Japan.
⁶ Wellcome, London, UK.
⁷ Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; Institute of Public Health, Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Germany; Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany; Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany.
⁸ London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
⁹ University of São Paulo Medical School, São Paulo, Brazil.
¹⁰ University College London, London, UK.
¹¹ School of Public Health, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada.
¹² Research Organization of Science and Technology, Ritsumeikan University, Japan.
¹³ UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, London, UK.
¹⁴ Faculty of Health and Sport Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan.
¹⁵ Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, School of Public, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
¹⁶ Climate Systems Analysis Group, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa.
¹⁷ Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea.
¹⁸ Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
¹⁹ University Peleforo GON COULIBALY, Korhogo, Côte d'Ivoire.
²⁰ ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain.
²¹ School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.
²² Public Health Agency of Canada, St-Hyacinthe, QC, Canada.
²³ School of Environmental Sciences, University of Haifa, Israel.
²⁴ Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK.
²⁵ University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
²⁶ Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Sweden.
²⁷ Sustainable Service Systems, Energy, Climate, and Environment Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria.
²⁸ Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Switzerland; Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Switzerland.
²⁹ Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.

PMID: 40957425
DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101297

Free article

Review

Priority climate and health modelling needs

Kristie L Ebi et al. Lancet Planet Health. 2025 Sep.

Free article

. 2025 Sep;9(9):101297.

doi: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101297. Epub 2025 Sep 13.

Authors

Affiliations

¹ Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, School of Public, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA. Electronic address: krisebi@uw.edu.
² School of Public Health, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia.
³ Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
⁴ School of Population and Public Health, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
⁵ Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Japan.
⁶ Wellcome, London, UK.
⁷ Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; Institute of Public Health, Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Germany; Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany; Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany.
⁸ London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
⁹ University of São Paulo Medical School, São Paulo, Brazil.
¹⁰ University College London, London, UK.
¹¹ School of Public Health, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada.
¹² Research Organization of Science and Technology, Ritsumeikan University, Japan.
¹³ UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, London, UK.
¹⁴ Faculty of Health and Sport Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan.
¹⁵ Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, School of Public, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
¹⁶ Climate Systems Analysis Group, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa.
¹⁷ Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea.
¹⁸ Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
¹⁹ University Peleforo GON COULIBALY, Korhogo, Côte d'Ivoire.
²⁰ ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain.
²¹ School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.
²² Public Health Agency of Canada, St-Hyacinthe, QC, Canada.
²³ School of Environmental Sciences, University of Haifa, Israel.
²⁴ Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK.
²⁵ University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
²⁶ Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Sweden.
²⁷ Sustainable Service Systems, Energy, Climate, and Environment Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria.
²⁸ Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Switzerland; Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Switzerland.
²⁹ Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.

PMID: 40957425
DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101297

Abstract

Climate and health modelling is necessary for improving understanding of the current and future distribution and timing of climate-related health risks. However, underinvestment in this area has limited the understanding required to inform policies that enable multisectoral interventions to safeguard health. We synthesised insights from a survey of 65 global climate and health modelling experts and 36 participants in a hybrid meeting to identify priority strategies for enhancing the validity, utility, and policy relevance of climate and health models. Foundational investments to support modelling included strengthening research capacity, establishing a network of multinational centres of excellence for transdisciplinary research and capacity building, improving data collection and sharing infrastructure, investing in scenario development and quantitative elaboration, assessing adaptation effectiveness, and committing to intermodel comparisons and interdisciplinary modelling activities. Specific recommendations included updating the 2014 WHO Quantitative Risk Assessment to cover a wider range of causal pathways and health endpoints, using interdisciplinary methods that facilitate model intercomparisons. Additional recommendations included supporting modelling of a broader set of climate-health outcomes, developing models to support early warning systems and investments in their implementation, evaluation, and maintenance, and improving health system capacity for modelling in low-resource settings.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declaration of interests KLE received support for the current manuscript from Wellcome via a grant to their institution, as well as other grants from Wellcome, US National Institutes of Health (NIH), World Meteorological Organization, and Royal Society (UK). KLE also received consulting fees from the Green Climate Fund and the UNDP, lecture honoraria from various universities, and travel support from various professional societies, the Royal Society Wolfson Visiting Fellowship (for travel to University of East Anglia) and the National Academy of Sciences (for Board and Committee meetings). KLE is a Board Member for START and is co-chair for the Future Earth Assembly; both positions are unpaid. KB received consulting fees from WHO, the World Bank, and the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade and support for attending meetings and travel from the Wellcome Trust (WT). NG received a grant from WT for the SALURBAL-Climate project. IH received support for the current manuscript from WT via the Lancet Countdown Grant. CG received support for the current manuscript via funding as a research assistant from the University of Washington (UW) to aid in workshop development, including meeting and travel support (flights and accommodation). CJ received support for the current manuscript from WT, which covered funding to attend the expert workshop and travel costs for attending meetings. BK received support for attending meetings and travel from WT via payment to their institution (WHO) to organise panel sessions of the WHO African Region Member States Ministers of Health at conferences and UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties. SK received support for the current manuscript and workshop attendance, including accommodation, from WT via a grant from UW. APM received support for the current manuscript from an invitation to a WT-funded UW-facilitated workshop in London in May, 2023, which provided input and a basis for the manuscript and covered travel support. RT received support for the current manuscript from WT via funding for the work on which the manuscript is based and is employed part-time by WT. BR received support from WT to attend the workshop. AMVC received support for the current manuscript from the Swiss National Foundation (salary partly covered by ST Grant TMSGI3_211626), Mobiliar Cooperative (salary partly covered since January, 2025), and WT-Attriverse (salary partly covered since March, 2025). AMVC also received support for attending meetings and travel from the WT workshop attribution in September, 2024. RW supported KLE’s successful application for a Royal Society Wolfson Visiting Fellowship to collaborate with the University of East Anglia (2022–25); this funding supported KLE’s travel to the UK and collaboration with them before, during, and after the workshop. This funding supported collaboration only and does not have any relationship with any third parties whose interests may be affected by the manuscript; however, the manuscript has been listed as one of the outputs supported by the Royal Society’s fellowship. No payments were made to RW or her institution; they acted as the host for KLE’s fellowship. BZ received institutional grants from the US NIH, US National Science Foundations, US Department of Energy, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and National Aeronautics and Space Administration and is a board member of the American Geophysical Union. JJH received support for the current manuscript from WT via a grant to their institution and other grants from the US NIH; University of Vermont; University of California, San Francisco; and University College London. JJH also received honoraria for lectures from Harvard University, Columbia University, and the University of New Mexico and serves as a board member for the Seattle Parks Foundation. PB, MB, PLCC, FCG, AD, AG, SH, SH, TH, MH, CH, YH, HK, PK, SJL, NHO, SP, JP, SJR, and JCS declare no competing interests.

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Priority climate and health modelling needs

Affiliations

Priority climate and health modelling needs

Authors

Affiliations

Abstract

Conflict of interest statement

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