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. 2025 Sep 26;13(1):114.
doi: 10.1186/s40364-025-00831-w.

1-year risks of cancers associated with COVID-19 vaccination: a large population-based cohort study in South Korea

Hong Jin Kim #  1 , Min-Ho Kim #  2 , Myeong Geun Choi  3 , Eun Mi Chun  4
Affiliations

1-year risks of cancers associated with COVID-19 vaccination: a large population-based cohort study in South Korea

Hong Jin Kim et al. Biomark Res. .

Abstract

The oncogenic potential of SARS-CoV-2 has been hypothetically proposed, but real-world data on COVID-19 infection and vaccination are insufficient. Therefore, this large-scale population-based retrospective study in Seoul, South Korea, aimed to estimate the cumulative incidences and subsequent risks of overall cancers 1 year after COVID-19 vaccination. Data from 8,407,849 individuals between 2021 and 2023 were obtained from the Korean National Health Insurance database. The participants were categorized into two groups based on their COVID-19 vaccination status. The risks for overall cancer were assessed using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models, and data were expressed as hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The HRs of thyroid (HR, 1.351; 95% CI, 1.206-1.514), gastric (HR, 1.335; 95% CI, 1.130-1.576), colorectal (HR, 1.283; 95% CI, 1.122-1.468), lung (HR, 1.533; 95% CI, 1.254-1.874), breast (HR, 1.197; 95% CI, 1.069-1.340), and prostate (HR, 1.687; 95% CI, 1.348-2.111) cancers significantly increased at 1 year post-vaccination. In terms of vaccine type, cDNA vaccines were associated with the increased risks of thyroid, gastric, colorectal, lung, and prostate cancers; mRNA vaccines were linked to the increased risks of thyroid, colorectal, lung, and breast cancers; and heterologous vaccination was related to the increased risks of thyroid and breast cancers. Given the observed associations between COVID-19 vaccination and cancer incidence by age, sex, and vaccine type, further research is needed to determine whether specific vaccination strategies may be optimal for populations in need of COVID-19 vaccination.

Keywords: COVID-19; Cancer; Vaccine; cDNA-based vaccine; mRNA-based vaccine.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declarations. Ethical approval and consent to participate: The study protocol was approved by the Institutional Review Board of our institute (IRB No.: EUMC 2023-07-003), which waived the requirement for informed consent because data analyses were performed retrospectively using anonymized data derived from the South Korean NHIS database. Consent for publication: Not applicable. Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Risks of cancers associated with COVID-19 vaccines. (A) Hazard ratio of overall and 29 different types of cancers; (B) Cumulative incidences of overall cancers; (C) Hazard ratio of overall cancers according to the vaccine types; (D) Cumulative incidences of overall cancers stratified by sex; (E) Cumulative incidences of overall cancers stratified by age
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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