Did migration alter the path of the demographic transition for French Canadians in the United States?

Abstract

Large numbers of Canadians, of both English and French descent, migrated to the United States between 1850 and 1930. In Canada, French-Canadian fertility and child mortality rates were about 50% higher than English Canadian rates. Although the English-Canadian and U.S. white population of native-born parentage experienced rapid fertility declines beginning in the mid to late nineteenth century, there is no sign of significant fertility decline among French Canadians before the twentieth century. We use the number of women's children ever born and the number of surviving children in the IPUMS 1910 full-count census dataset to examine whether migration to the United States altered the timing of the demographic transition for French Canadians. We conduct multivariate analyses to examine correlates of child mortality and fertility (including separate analyses of birth spacing and stopping behaviors), focusing on variables related to the migratory experience. The results indicate that while large differentials in child mortality and fertility persisted between the French- and English-Canadian populations living in the United States, the mortality and fertility of second-generation French Canadians converged significantly toward English-Canadian levels. Other characteristics associated with greater integration into American society yield similar results, with women in exogamous unions, who could speak English, and who resided in enumeration districts with lower proportions of French Canadians experiencing significantly lower fertility and child mortality rates. As expected, the demographic regime of English-Canadian women was similar to US-born women of US-born parentage.

Keywords: Canadians in the United States; Fertility; census data; child mortality; demographic transition; migration.