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. 2025 Oct 2.
doi: 10.1111/coa.70039. Online ahead of print.

Development and Validation of a Prognostic Model for Persistent Hypoparathyroidism After Total or Completion Thyroidectomy

Sam P J van Dijk  1 , Carolien C H M Maas  2   3 , Ali Alshangi  1 , M H Elise van Driel  1 , Eline A Feitsma  4 , Caroline M J van Kinschot  5 , Ivona Lončar  1 , Charlotte van Noord  6 , Linetta B Koppert  1 , Schelto Kruijff  4 , David van Klaveren  2 , Cornelis Verhoef  1 , Robin P Peeters  5 , Tessa M van Ginhoven  1 ; Hypoparathyroidism Study Group of the Thyroid Network
Collaborators, Affiliations

Development and Validation of a Prognostic Model for Persistent Hypoparathyroidism After Total or Completion Thyroidectomy

Sam P J van Dijk et al. Clin Otolaryngol. .

Abstract

Background: The aim of this study was to develop and validate a clinical prediction model to predict the occurrence of persistent hypoparathyroidism after total or completion thyroidectomy.

Methods: This multicentre retrospective cohort study included patients who underwent total or completion thyroidectomy between January 2010 and June 2021 in 12 Dutch hospitals.

Results: Of the 366 patients included, 44 (12.0%) patients developed persistent hypoparathyroidism in the first year follow-up after surgery. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that ΔPTH the day after surgery, corrected calcium the day after surgery, and not identifying at least one parathyroid during surgery were strong predictors for persistent hypoparathyroidism. The discriminative ability of the model was excellent (optimism-corrected C-index: 0.88, 95% CI: 0.84-0.92) with moderately calibrated predictions.

Conclusions: The model proposed in this study could be used to perform an individual assessment of patients at risk for persistent hypoparathyroidism after total thyroidectomy.

Keywords: PTH; persistent hypoparathyroidism; prognostication; readmissions.

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References

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