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. 2025 Oct 18;406(10513):1731-1810.
doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(25)01330-3. Epub 2025 Oct 12.

Global age-sex-specific all-cause mortality and life expectancy estimates for 204 countries and territories and 660 subnational locations, 1950-2023: a demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

GBD 2023 Demographics Collaborators
Collaborators, Affiliations

Global age-sex-specific all-cause mortality and life expectancy estimates for 204 countries and territories and 660 subnational locations, 1950-2023: a demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

GBD 2023 Demographics Collaborators. Lancet. .

Abstract

Background: Comprehensive, comparable, and timely estimates of demographic metrics-including life expectancy and age-specific mortality-are essential for evaluating, understanding, and addressing trends in population health. The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the importance of timely and all-cause mortality estimates for being able to respond to changing trends in health outcomes, showing a strong need for demographic analysis tools that can produce all-cause mortality estimates more rapidly with more readily available all-age vital registration (VR) data. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) is an ongoing research effort that quantifies human health by estimating a range of epidemiological quantities of interest across time, age, sex, location, cause, and risk. This study-part of the latest GBD release, GBD 2023-aims to provide new and updated estimates of all-cause mortality and life expectancy for 1950 to 2023 using a novel statistical model that accounts for complex correlation structures in demographic data across age and time.

Methods: We used 24 025 data sources from VR, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources to estimate all-cause mortality for males, females, and all sexes combined across 25 age groups in 204 countries and territories as well as 660 subnational units in 20 countries and territories, for the years 1950-2023. For the first time, we used complete birth history data for ages 5-14 years, age-specific sibling history data for ages 15-49 years, and age-specific mortality data from Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems. We developed a single statistical model that incorporates both parametric and non-parametric methods, referred to as OneMod, to produce estimates of all-cause mortality for each age-sex-location group. OneMod includes two main steps: a detailed regression analysis with a generalised linear modelling tool that accounts for age-specific covariate effects such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and a population attributable fraction (PAF) for all risk factors combined; and a non-parametric analysis of residuals using a multivariate kernel regression model that smooths across age and time to adaptably follow trends in the data without overfitting. We calibrated asymptotic uncertainty estimates using Pearson residuals to produce 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) and corresponding 1000 draws. Life expectancy was calculated from age-specific mortality rates with standard demographic methods. For each measure, 95% UIs were calculated with the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

Findings: In 2023, 60·1 million (95% UI 59·0-61·1) deaths occurred globally, of which 4·67 million (4·59-4·75) were in children younger than 5 years. Due to considerable population growth and ageing since 1950, the number of annual deaths globally increased by 35·2% (32·2-38·4) over the 1950-2023 study period, during which the global age-standardised all-cause mortality rate declined by 66·6% (65·8-67·3). Trends in age-specific mortality rates between 2011 and 2023 varied by age group and location, with the largest decline in under-5 mortality occurring in east Asia (67·7% decrease); the largest increases in mortality for those aged 5-14 years, 25-29 years, and 30-39 years occurring in high-income North America (11·5%, 31·7%, and 49·9%, respectively); and the largest increases in mortality for those aged 15-19 years and 20-24 years occurring in Eastern Europe (53·9% and 40·1%, respectively). We also identified higher than previously estimated mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa for all sexes combined aged 5-14 years (87·3% higher in GBD 2023 than GBD 2021 on average across countries and territories over the 1950-2021 period) and for females aged 15-29 years (61·2% higher), as well as lower than previously estimated mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa for all sexes combined aged 50 years and older (13·2% lower), reflecting advances in our modelling approach. Global life expectancy followed three distinct trends over the study period. First, between 1950 and 2019, there were considerable improvements, from 51·2 (50·6-51·7) years for females and 47·9 (47·4-48·4) years for males in 1950 to 76·3 (76·2-76·4) years for females and 71·4 (71·3-71·5) years for males in 2019. Second, this period was followed by a decrease in life expectancy during the COVID-19 pandemic, to 74·7 (74·6-74·8) years for females and 69·3 (69·2-69·4) years for males in 2021. Finally, the world experienced a period of post-pandemic recovery in 2022 and 2023, wherein life expectancy generally returned to pre-pandemic (2019) levels in 2023 (76·3 [76·0-76·6] years for females and 71·5 [71·2-71·8] years for males). 194 (95·1%) of 204 countries and territories experienced at least partial post-pandemic recovery in age-standardised mortality rates by 2023, with 61·8% (126 of 204) recovering to or falling below pre-pandemic levels. There were several mortality trajectories during and following the pandemic across countries and territories. Long-term mortality trends also varied considerably between age groups and locations, demonstrating the diverse landscape of health outcomes globally.

Interpretation: This analysis identified several key differences in mortality trends from previous estimates, including higher rates of adolescent mortality, higher rates of young adult mortality in females, and lower rates of mortality in older age groups in much of sub-Saharan Africa. The findings also highlight stark differences across countries and territories in the timing and scale of changes in all-cause mortality trends during and following the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-23). Our estimates of evolving trends in mortality and life expectancy across locations, ages, sexes, and SDI levels in recent years as well as over the entire 1950-2023 study period provide crucial information for governments, policy makers, and the public to ensure that health-care systems, economies, and societies are prepared to address the world's health needs, particularly in populations with higher rates of mortality than previously known. The estimates from this study provide a robust framework for GBD and a valuable foundation for policy development, implementation, and evaluation around the world.

Funding: Gates Foundation.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declaration of interests D Adzrago reports support for the present manuscript from the National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities at the National Institutes of Health. D Adzrago's efforts are supported by the Division of Intramural Research at the National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities, National Institutes of Health (ZIA MD000015). Opinions and comments expressed in this Article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the US Government, Department of Health and Human Services, National Institutes of Health, and National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities; support for meetings and/or travel from the National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities at the National Institutes of Health, outside the submitted work. S Afzal reports support for the present manuscript from the Institute of Public Health, Lahore, Pakistan; grants or contracts by the Dean Institute of Public Health, Lahore, Pakistan; honoraria for experts, lectures, visiting speakers and educational seminars were provided by the Dean Institute of Public Health, Lahore, Pakistan; support for attending meetings and travel was provided by the Dean Institute of Public Health, Lahore, Pakistan; leadership or fiduciary roles in board, society, committee or advocacy groups, paid or unpaid as a Member of the Pakistan Higher Education Commission Research Committee, Member of the Pakistan Medical and Dental Commission Research and Journals Committee, Member of the Pakistan National Bioethics Committee, Member of the Pakistan Society of Internal Medicine, Member of the Pakistan Association of Medical Editors, Member of the Medical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases Society, Fellow of LEADS (Cohort15), 2010, Fellow of the Faculty of Public Health UK, Fellow of the College of Physicians and Surgeons Pakistan; receipt of equipment, materials, drugs, and services including computer software and equipment from Bergen University Norway for research writing; and other financial or non-financial support from the Dean Public Health Institute of Public Health, Lahore, Pakistan; outside the submitted work. C Agostinis Sobrinho reports grants or contracts from Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT)- (CEECINST/00093/2021/CP2815/CT0001); outside the submitted work. R Ancuceanu reports royalties or licenses from AbbVie and Merck Romania; payment or honoraria for lectures, presentations, speakers bureaus, manuscript writing, or educational events from AbbVie, Laropharm, Reckitt, and Merck Romania; and support for attending meetings and/or travel from Merck Romania and Reckitt; outside the submitted work. J Arnlov reports payment or honoraria for lecture fees, speakers bureaus, manuscript writing, or educational events from AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim, and Novartis; and participation on a Data Safety Monitoring Board or Advisory Board with AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim, and Astella; outside the submitted work. M S Aslam reports grants or contracts from Xiamen University Malaysia Research Fund (XMUMRF; grant number XMUMRF/2025-C15/ITCM/0006), Project title: Therapeutic and Toxicity Evaluation of Selected Medicinal Herbs for NAFLD: Exploring the Inter-Organelle Contact Sites Modulation Theory Role: Co-Investigator Dates: Jan 2025–Dec 2027 (ongoing) Internal XMUMRF research grant administered by Xiamen University Malaysia; funds disbursed to institutional research account only; no salary, honoraria, or personal payments to author, and grant number XMUMRF/2023-C11/ISEM/0041, project title: Children's Rights Education in the Early Years of Divorce: An Exploration of Adolescents’ Perspectives Role: Co-Investigator Dates: Jan 2023 – Dec 2025 (ongoing) Internal XMUMRF research grant administered by Xiamen University Malaysia; funds disbursed to institutional research account only; no salary, honoraria, or personal payments to author; outside the submitted work. R Bai reports support for the present manuscript from the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (number 3092301101). O C Baltatu reports support for the present manuscript from Alfaisal University, Anima Institute (AI) Research Professor Fellowship, National Council for Scientific and Technological Development Fellowship (CNPq, 304224/2022-7); Leadership or fiduciary roles in board, society, committee, or advocacy groups, paid or unpaid as Managing Partner, VividiWise Analytics and as a Biotech Advisory Board Member, São José dos Campos Technology Park – CITE; outside the submitted work. S Barteit reports grants or contracts from the Carl-Zeiss Foundation research grant and the German research foundation (DFG) research grant; stock or stock options from the CHEERS company; outside the submitted work. 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S Bhaskar reports grants or contracts from Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS), Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (KAKENHI) (Grant ID: 23KF0126), JSPS and the Australian Academy of Science, JSPS International Fellowship (Grant ID: P23712; leadership or fiduciary role in other board, society, committee, or advocacy group, paid or unpaid as District Chair, Diversity, Equity, Inclusion & Belonging of Rotary District 9675 (Sydney, Australia), as Chair, Founding Member and Manager of the Global Health & Migration Hub Community, Global Health Hub Germany (Berlin, Germany), as Editorial Board Member of PLOS One, BMC Neurology, Frontiers in Neurology, Frontiers in Stroke, Frontiers in Public Health, Journal of Aging Research, Neurology International, Diagnostics, &BMC Medical Research Methodology, as a member of the College of Reviewers, Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR), Government of Canada, as the Director of Research of World Headache Society (Bengaluru, India), as Expert Adviser/Reviewer of Cariplo Foundation (Milan, Italy), as Visiting Director of National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center, Department of Neurology, Division of Cerebrovascular Medicine and Neurology, Suita (Osaka, Japan), as Member, Scientific Review Committee of Cardiff University Biobank (Cardiff, UK), as Chair of Rotary Reconciliation Action Plan, and Healthcare and Medical Adviser at Japan Connect (Osaka, Japan); outside the submitted work. M Carvalho reports other financial or non-financial support from LAQV/REQUIMTE, University of Porto (Porto, Portugal), FCT/MCTES under the scope of the project UIDP/50006/2020 (DOI 10.54499/UIDP/50006/2020); outside the submitted work. N Conrad reports grants or contracts from Wellcome Trust Career Development Award (grant number 318034/Z/24/Z) (personal fellowship for research support paid to their institution) and the Research Foundation Flanders (grant number 12ZU922N; personal fellowship for research support paid to their institution); outside the submitted work. 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C Herteliu is partially supported by the project “A better understanding of socio-economic systems using quantitative methods from Physics” funded by European Union – NextgenerationEU and Romanian Government, under National Recovery and Resilience Plan for Romania, contract number 760034/ 23.05.2023, cod PNRR-C9-I8-CF 255/ 29.11.2022, through the Romanian Ministry of Research, Innovation and Digitalization, within Component 9, Investment I8; outside the submitted work. A H Hoveidaei reports leadership or fiduciary roles in board, society, committee, or advocacy groups, paid or unpaid as Guest Editor of Frontiers in Sports and Active living, as Editorial Board Member of International Orthopaedics, Bone Reports, BMC Research Notes, PLoS One, Frontiers in Rehabilitation Sciences (unpaid); outside the submitted work. 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D Lindholm reports stock or stock options with AstraZeneca (during time of employment); other financial or non-financial interests as a former employee of AstraZeneca; outside the submitted work. J Liu reports support for the present manuscript and grants or contracts from the National Natural Science Foundation (72474005) and Beijing Natural Science Foundation (L222027). V Lohner reports support for the present manuscript from Marga and Walter Boll Foundation, Kerpen, Germany. E Lytvyak reports grants or contracts from University of Alberta (Principal Investigator), Advanz Pharma (Co-Principal Investigator), WCB Alberta (Co-Principal Investigator), CPSA (Co-Principal Investigator); payment or honoraria for lectures, presentations, speakers bureaus, manuscript writing or educational events from the Alberta Obesity Society; other financial or non-financial interests from the University of Alberta as an employee and from Alberta Health Services; outside the submitted work. 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Additionally, P Maffia serves as a Nucleus Member of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) Working Group on Atherosclerosis & Vascular Biology and Cell Biology of the Heart and serves on the Executive Committee of the British Atherosclerosis Society (BAS), a part of the Immunotherapy Committee of the International Union of Immunological Societies (IUIS), and is a member of the Translational Clinical Studies (TCS) Grant Panel for the Chief Scientist Office (CSO); outside the submitted work. H R Marateb reports grants or contracts from Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya · Barcelona Tech – UPC; outside the submitted work. R Maude reports support for the present manuscript from the Wellcome Trust (grant number 220211) as it provides core funding for Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research and contributes to R Maude's salary. R Maude is required by Wellcome to acknowledge this grant in all publications. 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P Sachdev reports grants or contracts from the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia, APP1169489 (payment to institution) and National Institutes of Health, USA; grants 1RF1AG057531-01 and 2R01AG057531-02A1 (payment to institution); leadership or fiduciary roles in board, society, committee or advocacy groups, unpaid with the International Neuropsychiatric Association as Executive Board member, and World Psychiatric Association on the Planning Committee; payment or honoraria for lectures, presentations, speakers bureaus, manuscript writing, or educational events from Alkem Labs for a lecture as part of the Frontiers of Psychiatry 2023 seminar, Mumbai, India, June 2023; support for attending meetings and/or travel for attendance of four meetings; participation on a DSMB or advisory board with Biogen Australia Medical Advisory committee in 2020 and 2021 Roche Australia Medical Advisory Committee in 2022 and Eli Lilly, Expert Advisory Panel, 2025; outside the submitted work. Y L Samodra reports grants or contracts from Taipei Medical University (Taiwan), Type A Doctoral Scholarship, EPM NTU & NSTC, Taiwan, postdoctoral fellow contract; leadership or fiduciary roles in board, society, committee, or advocacy groups, paid or unpaid with Benang Merah Research Center, Indonesia (benangmerah.net); outside the submitted work. H Sarma reports support for the present manuscript from Bodoland University, Assam, India. A Schutte reports consulting fees from Medtronic, AstraZeneca, Sky Labs, and Omron; payment or honoraria for lectures, presentations, speakers bureaus, manuscript writing, or educational events from Medtronic, AstraZeneca, Servier, Sanofi, Abbott, Omron, and Aktiaa; support for attending meetings and/or travel from Servier and Medtronic; outside the submitted work. F Shahkarami reports grants or contracts and payment or honoraria from Tehran University of Medical Sciences, School of Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine; outside the submitted work. V Sharma reports grants or contracts from DFSS (MHA)‘s research project (DFSS28(1)2019/EMR/6) at Institute of Forensic Science & Criminology, Panjab University, Chandigarh, India; outside the submitted work. V Shivarov reports one patent from the Bulgarian patent office (#BG113116A); and other financial support from ICON plc (salary); outside the submitted work. L M L R da Silva reports grants or contracts from SPRINT - Sport Physical Activity and Health Research & Innovation Center, Polytechnic of Guarda, 6300-559 Guarda, Portugal and RISE-Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Beira Interior, 6201-506 Covilhã, Portugal; outside the submitted work. J Singh reports consulting fees from ROMTech, Atheneum, ClearView Healthcare Partners, American College of Rheumatology, Yale, Hulio, Horizon Pharmaceuticals, DINORA, ANI/Exeltis, USA Inc., Frictionless Solutions, Schipher, Crealta/Horizon, Medisys, Fidia, PK Med, Two Labs Inc., Adept Field Solutions, Clinical Care options, Putnam Associates, Focus Forward, Navigant Consulting, Spherix, MedIQ, Jupiter Life Science, UBM LLC, Trio Health, Medscape, WebMD, and Practice Point Communications; and the National Institutes of Health; payment or honoraria for lectures, presentations, speakers bureaus, manuscript writing, or educational events from Simply Speaking; support for attending meetings and/or travel from Simply Speaking; leadership or fiduciary role in other board, society, committee, or advocacy group, paid or unpaid as a past steering committee member of the OMERACT, an international organisation that develops measures for clinical trials and receives arm's length funding from 12 pharmaceutical companies, and as a Chair of the Veterans Affairs Rheumatology Field Advisory Committee, and as editor and the Director of the UAB Cochrane Musculoskeletal Group Satellite Center on Network Meta-analysis; stock or stock options in Atai Life Sciences, Kintara Therapeutics, Intelligent Biosolutions, Acumen Pharmaceutical, TPT Global Tech, Vaxart Pharmaceuticals, Atyu Biopharma, Adaptimmune Therapeutics, GeoVax Labs, Pieris Pharmaceuticals, Enzolytics Inc., Seres Therapeutics, Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp., Aebona Pharmaceuticals, and Charlotte's Web Holdings, Inc., and previously owned stock options in Amarin, Viking, and Moderna Pharmaceuticals; outside the submitted work. I Soyiri reports leadership or fiduciary roles in board, society, committee or advocacy groups, unpaid as Trustee of the Citizens Advice Bureau for Hull & East Riding, UK; outside the submitted work. J D Stanaway reports support for the present manuscript from the Gates Foundation (grants paid to institution); and grants or contracts from Novo Nordisk Foundation (grants paid to institution), outside the submitted work. R Tabares-Seisdedos reports grants or contracts from Valencian Regional Government's Ministry of Education (PROMETEO/CIPROM/2022/58 (the funders were not involved in the design of the manuscript or decision to submit the manuscript for publication, nor will they be involved in any aspect of the study's conduct) and grants or contracts from the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities (PID2021-129099OB-I00; the funders were not involved in the design of the manuscript or decision to submit the manuscript for publication, nor will they be involved in any aspect of the study's conduct); outside the submitted work. T Tabuchi reports grants or contracts from Daiichi Sankyo Healthcare, Workout-Plus LLC, Johnson & Johnson, EMMA, and Data Seed; outside the submitted work. J H V Ticoalu reports leadership or fiduciary roles in board, society, committee, or advocacy groups, paid or unpaid as co-founder of Benang Merah Research Center, Indonesia (benangmerah.net); outside the submitted work. M Titova reports support for the present manuscript from the state assignment of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation (themes number 122042600086-7 and number 122042700043-9). S Tromans reports grants or contracts from part of the 2023/4 Adult Psychiatric Morbidity Survey team, collecting epidemiological data on community-based adults living in England. This is a contracted study from NHS Digital, via the Department of Health and Social Care. S Tromans reports contributions and data collection for the 2023/4 Adult Psychiatric Morbidity Survey report; payments made to University of Leicester; being lead on a study funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research Clinical Research Network, on optimizing the survey design for people with learning disability and autism; leadership or fiduciary roles in board, society, committee, or advocacy groups, paid or unpaid as Academic Secretary for the Neurodevelopmental Psychiatry Special Interest Group and Psychiatry of Intellectual Disability Faculty at the Royal College of Psychiatrists; as Editorial Board Member for Progress in Neurology and Psychiatry, Advances in Mental Health and Intellectual Disabilities, Advances in Autism, BMC Psychiatry, and BJPsych Open, and as Editor of Psychiatry of Intellectual Disability Across Cultures (Oxford University Press); support for attending meetings and/or travel from the Royal College of Psychiatrists; outside the submitted work. G Tse reports leadership or fiduciary roles in board, society, committee, or advocacy groups, paid or unpaid with the International Society of Electrocardiology and the International Society for Holter and Noninvasive Electrocardiology; participation on a DSMB or advisory board as a member of the Core Steering Committee meeting for the International Cardiovascular and Respiratory Alliance and the International Society of Electrocardiology, International Society for Holter and Noninvasive Electrocardiology; outside the submitted work. E Upadhyay reports the following patents planned, issued or pending with The Office of the Controller General of Patents, Designs & Trade Marks (CGPDTM; https://iprsearch.ipindia.gov.in/PublicSearch/PublicationSearch/ApplicationStatus): “Eco-friendly bio-shoe polish from banana and turmeric” (Filed 202511021382), “Honey-based polyherbal syrup composition to treat air pollution-induced inflammation and preparation method thereof” (Filed 202511035171), “Process for preparing a caffeine free, antioxidant and nutrient rich beverage” (Filed 202511042794), “A system and method of reusable filters for anti-pollution mask” (Published 202011003559), “A system and method for electricity generation through crop stubble by using microbial fuel cells” (Published 202011008531), “A system for disposed personal protection equipment (PPE) into biofuel through pyrolysis and method” (Published 202111005659), “A novel herbal pharmaceutical aid for formulation of gel and method thereof” (Published 202111023333), “Herbal drug formulation for treating lung tissue degenerated by particulate matter exposure” (Published 202311035276), “A method to transform cow dung into the wall paint by using natural materials and composition thereof” (Filed 202311085452), “Biodegradable packaging composition and method of preparation thereof” (Filed 202511017848); leadership or fiduciary role in other board, society, committee, or advocacy group as an Executive Council Member for the Indian Meteorological Society, Jaipur Chapter (India) and a Member Secretary for the DSTPURSE Program; outside the submitted work. E Vounzoulaki reports grants or contracts from an NIHR DSE Award until July 2026; outside the submitted work. P Willeit reports consulting fees from Novartis Pharmaceuticals; outside the submitted work. J Wu reports grants or contracts from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (R38HL167238) and acknowledges previous funding from the American Society of Hematology Opportunities for the Next Generation of Research Scientists (HONORS) Award, outside the submitted work. Y Yasufuku reports grants or contracts from Shionogi & Co., Ltd; employment expenses are paid from the joint research fund provided by this pharmaceutical company to The University of Osaka; outside the submitted work. S Zadey reports leadership or fiduciary roles in board, society, committee or advocacy groups, paid or unpaid on the Board of the Association for Socially Applicable Research Fellow, the Lancet Citizens’ Commission on Reimagining India's Health System Chair, G4 Alliance Asia Working Group and as Fellow, Blood DESERT Coalition; payment or honoraria for lectures, presentations, speakers bureaus, manuscript writing, or educational events from Think Global Health and Hindu; participation on a DSMB or advisory board with Nivarana - Advisory Board; outside the submitted work. G Zamagni reports support for the present manuscript from the Italian Ministry of Health through the contribution given to the Institute for Maternal and Child Health IRCCS Burlo Garofolo, Trieste – Italy. L Zuhlke reports royalties or license from Up to Date; consulting fees from Le DucQ; and leadership or fiduciary roles in board, society, committee or advocacy groups, unpaid with Food Forward SA; outside the submitted work. All other authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Completeness of reported VR system data by GBD super-region, 1975–2023 Completeness is defined as the total number of deaths registered in all VR systems within a super-region during a 5-year period divided by the total number of estimated deaths within that super-region and period, with 100% completeness indicating that all deaths were registered. The size of the datapoints represents the number of estimated deaths. The solid black line shows global completeness, the dashed black line indicates global completeness excluding China and India, and the other coloured lines indicate GBD super-regions. The green shaded box indicates complete registration (defined as >95%). GBD=Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. VR=vital registration.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Annual change in number of deaths, for broad age groups and all ages combined, 1970–2023 Annual change is defined as the difference between the number of deaths in the current year and the preceding year. The y-axis scales differ by age group. The large change in the age groups 5–14 years and 15–39 years between 1994 and 1995 was due to deaths during the Rwandan genocide. The large change in the age groups 15–39 years, 40–59 years, and ≥60 years between 2020 and 2022 was due to deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic. GBD=Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Age-specific deaths by sex and GBD super-region, in 1950 (A), 1990 (B), 2010 (C), and 2023 (D) The number of female deaths (left side) can be compared to male deaths (right side) by age group for four distinct years. The x-axis scales differ by year. Different colours show GBD super-regions. GBD=Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study.
Figure 4
Figure 4
All-cause mortality rates globally and by GBD super-region across the lifespan in females and males, 1950–2023 Mortality rates are expressed as the number of deaths per 1000 population. GBD=Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Percentage change in age-specific mortality rates by GBD region, 1950–1990 (A), 1990–2011 (B), and 2011–2023 (C) Percentage change for a year range is calculated as the difference in the estimates between the second year and the first year, divided by the estimate in the first year. The boxes range from blue (indicating a decrease in mortality rate between the 2 years), to yellow (indicating no or minimal change between the 2 years), to red (indicating an increase in mortality rate between the 2 years). Darker colours represent a more substantial change. GBD regions are listed in descending order by greatest increase in life expectancy from 1950 to 2023. GBD=Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Percentage change in age-specific mortality rates by GBD region, 1950–1990 (A), 1990–2011 (B), and 2011–2023 (C) Percentage change for a year range is calculated as the difference in the estimates between the second year and the first year, divided by the estimate in the first year. The boxes range from blue (indicating a decrease in mortality rate between the 2 years), to yellow (indicating no or minimal change between the 2 years), to red (indicating an increase in mortality rate between the 2 years). Darker colours represent a more substantial change. GBD regions are listed in descending order by greatest increase in life expectancy from 1950 to 2023. GBD=Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Percentage change in age-specific mortality rates by GBD region, 1950–1990 (A), 1990–2011 (B), and 2011–2023 (C) Percentage change for a year range is calculated as the difference in the estimates between the second year and the first year, divided by the estimate in the first year. The boxes range from blue (indicating a decrease in mortality rate between the 2 years), to yellow (indicating no or minimal change between the 2 years), to red (indicating an increase in mortality rate between the 2 years). Darker colours represent a more substantial change. GBD regions are listed in descending order by greatest increase in life expectancy from 1950 to 2023. GBD=Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study.
Figure 6
Figure 6
Distribution of ARC in age-specific mortality rates across countries and territories by GBD super-region, 1950–1990 (A), 1990–2011 (B), and 2011–2023 (C) Percentage change for a year range is calculated as the difference in the estimates between the second year and the first year, divided by the estimate in the first year. The boxes represent the middle 50% of the distribution (25th and 75th percentiles), the horizontal line in the boxes indicates the median, and the whiskers show the middle 95% of the distribution (2·5th and 97·5th percentiles). GBD=Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study.
Figure 7
Figure 7
Life expectancy at birth across GBD super-regions and SDI quintiles in females and males, 1950–2023 The different colours represent GBD super-regions in the top row and SDI quintiles in the bottom row. The decline in life expectancy in 1960 for the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania super-region (purple line) was due to famine. GBD=Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. SDI=Socio-demographic Index.
Figure 8
Figure 8
Patterns of location-specific changes in life expectancy during and following the COVID-19 pandemic (2019–22) The life expectancy pattern is based on whether life expectancy increased (+) or decreased (−) between two adjacent years. The + or − after 2019 compares 2019 to 2020, the + or − after 2020 compares 2020 to 2021, and the + or − after 2021 compares 2021 to 2022. For example, the – after 2019 indicates that life expectancy was lower in 2020 compared to 2019. The Other category corresponds to the remaining 2 life expectancy patterns not otherwise listed.
Figure 9
Figure 9
National life expectancy at birth versus SDI, and expected life expectancy based on SDI, in females and males, in 1950, 1990, and 2023 Life expectancy at birth is shown for 204 countries and territories coloured by GBD super-region. Transparent points in all plots show every fifth year between 1950, 2015, and 2023 in the first two columns. The black line represents the expected life expectancy at birth based on SDI, and the shaded area corresponds to 95% uncertainty intervals. The labelled countries are those mentioned in the Results section for having the highest or lowest value of a mortality indicator. GBD=Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. SDI=Socio-demographic Index.
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