Global, regional, and national burden of Chagas disease, 1990-2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023
- PMID: 41202826
- DOI: 10.1016/S1473-3099(25)00562-6
Global, regional, and national burden of Chagas disease, 1990-2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023
Abstract
Background: Chagas disease is a neglected tropical disease caused by the protozoan Trypanosoma cruzi, primarily transmitted by infected bugs, but also through contaminated food, transfusions, congenital transmission, and organ transplantation. Chagas disease has acute and chronic phases; the chronic phase can occur decades after infection, leading to complications such as heart failure, arrhythmias, and megaviscera. Accurate mortality and morbidity estimates are hindered by under-reporting and misclassification. Comprehensive and updated estimates are needed to improve global assessments of Chagas disease burden. We aim to provide a comprehensive description of global and regional burden of Chagas disease and its trends from 1990 to 2023.
Methods: In this systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023, we produced estimates of Chagas disease deaths, years of life lost (YLLs), prevalence, incidence, years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023 by age and sex. The GBD 2023 estimates supersede previous estimates for all years. For mortality estimates, we fit a cause of death ensemble model to vital registration data. For non-fatal estimates in endemic locations, we did a systematic review of seroprevalence data, defining a confirmed case as a confirmed diagnosis of T cruzi infection by two different positive tests (or a single ELISA or immunochromatographic test). After adjustment for the population at risk, we used a Bayesian compartmental model (DisMod-MR) to produce estimates. For non-endemic locations, we estimated prevalence on the basis of migration patterns and estimated prevalence from endemic countries. Prevalence of acute and chronic sequelae and corresponding disability weights were used to calculate YLDs.
Findings: We estimated 10·5 million (95% uncertainty interval 9·4-11·7) Chagas disease prevalent cases in 2023 globally, a 16·1% (12·6-19·2) decrease compared with 1990. The global age-standardised Chagas disease prevalence rate declined by 55·0% (53·8-56·1) from 1990 to 2023, with rates decreasing across all endemic regions. The highest age-standardised Chagas disease prevalence rates in 2023 were in southern Latin America (2485·9 [2249·6-2707·7] per 100 000) and Andean Latin America (2313·8 [2093·7-2570·1] per 100 000). Non-endemic regions experienced notable increases in prevalence due to migration from endemic countries. The age distribution of cases shifted over time, peaking at older ages in 2023 (between age 45 years and 65 years) compared with 1990 (30-45 years). In 2023, there were 352 000 (308 000-398 000) new cases of Chagas disease globally, with the age-standardised rate decreasing by 55·1% (53·4-56·6) since 1990. There were 8420 (7480-9360) deaths globally in 2023. Age-standardised mortality decreased by 72·5% (68·9-75·4) globally from 1990 to 2023. In 2023, the highest age-standardised mortality rates were in tropical Latin America (2·2 [1·9-2·4] per 100 000) and Andean Latin America (0·92 [0·70-1·2] per 100 000).
Interpretation: The GBD 2023 Chagas disease estimates are notably higher than previous GBD estimates, reflecting additional data and methodological improvements, and those published by the Pan American Health Organization. Nevertheless, these updated estimates show decreasing prevalence and incidence in endemic countries, highlighting the importance of socioeconomic development, housing conditions, and vector-control policies. Conversely, the increase in prevalence in non-endemic countries, mainly due to migration, requires new strategies for screening, early recognition, and access to care. Although the marked decrease in mortality and YLLs might be due to better access to care at different levels, the shift in age distribution highlights the importance of preparing and funding health systems for caring for older populations with advanced sequelae. Finally, the continuous refinement of data-source quality, including adequate coding and classification, is crucial for the accuracy of global estimates, which can ultimately drive health and social policies.
Funding: The Gates Foundation, the World Heart Federation, and Novartis Pharma.
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Conflict of interest statement
Declaration of interests SaA reports support for the present study from the Institute of Public Health Lahore in the way of study material, manuscripts, medical writing, and library resources; grants or contracts from the Dean Office Institute of Public Health Lahore; payment or honoraria for lectures, presentations, speakers bureaus, manuscript writing, or educational events from the Dean Institute of Public Health Lahore; support for attending meetings or travel from the Dean Institute of Public Health Lahore; participation on a Data Safety Monitoring Board or Advisory Board as a member of the Pakistan National Bioethics Committee, membership in the Institutional Review Board of Fatima Jin-nah Medical University, membership in the Ethical Review Board and Data Monitoring Board Institute of Public Health Lahore Pakistan, reports being in charge of the Clinical Research Organization King Edward Medical University, membership in the Annals of King Edward Medical University Advisory Board; leadership or fiduciary roles in other board, society, committee or advocacy groups, paid or unpaid as a member of the Pakistan Higher Education Commission Research Committee, membership in the Pakistan Medical and Dental Commission Research and Journals Committee, membership in the Pakistan National Bioethics Committee, membership in the Pakistan Society of Internal Medicine, membership in the Pakistan Association of Medical Editors, membership in the Medical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases Society, Fellow of Leads International, Fellow of Faculty of Public Health UK, and Fellow of College of Physicians and Surgeons Pakistan; receipt of equipment, materials, drugs, medical writing, gifts, or other services from Bergen University Norway for research writing; other financial or non-financial interests from the Dean Public Health Institute of Public Health Birdwood Lahore, outside the submitted work. OCB reports support for the present manuscript from the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development Fellowship (CNPq, 304224/2022-7), an Anima Institute Research Professor Fellowship, and support from Alfaisal University; leadership or fiduciary roles in other board, society, committee, or advocacy groups, paid or unpaid from VividiWise Analytics as a Managing Partner and São José dos Campos Tech Park CITE as a Biotech Advisory Board member, outside the submitted work. AB reports grants or contracts from Gilead and GSK–ViiV; payment or honoraria for lectures, presentations, speakers bureaus, manuscript writing, or educational events from Gilead and GSK; support for attending meetings or travel from Gilead and GSK (all paid to the University of West Attica); receipt of equipment, materials, drugs, medical writing, gifts or other services from Cepheid, outside the submitted work. SB reports grants or contracts from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS), Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology; Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (KAKENHI 23KF0126), Japan Society for the Promotion of Science and the Australian Academy of Science; a JSPS International Fellowship (P23712); leadership or fiduciary roles with the following board, society, committee, or advocacy groups, paid or unpaid: as the District Chair of Diversity, Equity, Inclusion, Belonging of Rotary District 9675 (Sydney, Australia); as the Chair, Founding Member, and Manager of the Global Health and Migration Hub Community and Global Health Hub Germany (Berlin, Germany); as an Editorial Board Member of PLoS One, BMC Neurology, Frontiers in Neurology, Frontiers in Stroke, Frontiers in Public Health, the Journal of Aging Research, Neurology International, Diagnostics, and BMC Medical Research Methodology; as a member of the College of Reviewers with the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (Government of Canada); as Director of Research with the World Headache Society (Bengaluru, India); as Expert Adviser and Reviewer with the Cariplo Foundation (Milan, Italy); as Visiting Director of the National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center within the Department of Neurology and Division of Cerebrovascular Medicine and Neurology, Suita (Osaka, Japan); as Member of the Scientific Review Committee of Cardiff University Biobank (Cardiff, UK); as Chair of Rotary Reconciliation Action Plan; and as the Healthcare and Medical Adviser at Japan Connect (Osaka, Japan); all outside the submitted work. CD reports support for the present manuscript from Novartis as part of a research collaboration with the World Heart Federation, and World Heart Federation funded the Federal University of Minas Gerais to lead this project; stock or stock options in Novartis; and other financial support as a Novartis employee, outside this work. RCF reports support for attending meetings or travel from the Australasian College of Tropical Medicine Conference 2022–24; leadership or fiduciary roles in other board, society, committee, or advocacy groups, paid or unpaid; presidency of the Australasian College of Tropical Medicine; board membership of the Royal Life Saving Society Australia; presidency of Kidsafe Australia; and board membership in Auschem Training, outside the submitted work. YG reports support for the present manuscript from Novartis AG as part of a research collaboration with the World Heart Federation, and the World Heart Federation funded the Federal University of Minas Gerais to lead this project; and stock or stock options in Novartis, outside this work. AAH reports grant support from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, outside the submitted work. IMI reports support for the present manuscript from the Ministry of Science, Technological Development, and Innovation of the Republic of Serbia (451-03-137/2025-03/200110). MDI reports support for the present manuscript from the Ministry of Science, Technological Development, and Innovation of the Republic of Serbia (451-03-47/2023-01/200111). IEM reports support for the present manuscript from Novartis as part of a research collaboration with the World Heart Federation, and the World Heart Federation funded the Federal University of Minas Gerais to lead this project. IM reports support for the present manuscript from Novartis as part of a research collaboration with the World Heart Federation, and World Heart Federation funded the Federal University of Minas Gerais to lead this project; payment or honoraria for lectures, presentations, speakers bureaus, manuscript writing, or educational events from Novartis (conference at a meeting to disseminate the global framework of the RAISE project). JFM reports support for the present manuscript from the Gates Foundation; grant funding from the Gates Foundation and Gavi, payment or honoraria for continuing medical education presentation from Providence Health & Services; and support for attending meetings or travel from the Gates Foundation, outside the submitted work. BRN reports funding from Novartis Pharma as part of a research collaboration with the World Heart Federation; and support from the World Health Federation (funding to the Federal University of Minas Gerais to lead this project). RP reports participation on a Data Safety Monitoring Board or Advisory Board with the Data Safety Monitoring Board dello studio Consolidation with ADCT-402 (loncastuximab tesirine) after immunochemotherapy: a phase II study in BTKi- treated/ineligible relapse/refractory mantle cell lymphoma (MCL) patients, Fondazione Italiana Linfomi, Alessandria (Italy), unpaid; leadership or fiduciary roles in other board, society, committee or advocacy group, paid or unpaid, with the EBMT Statistical Committee, European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation, Paris (France) as a member, and the IRB/IEC Comitato Etico AO SS Antonio e Biagio Alessandria-ASL AL-VC (Italy) as a past Member (2020–23); all outside the submitted work. ALPR is supported in part by CNPq (310790/2021-2 and 408659/2024-6) and the Research Support Foundation of the State of Minas Gerais (FAPEMIG RED 00192-23). ALPR reports funding from Novartis Pharma as part of a research collaboration with the World Heart Federation, and support from the World Health Federation who funded the Federal University of Minas Gerais to lead this project.
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