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. 2025 Nov 25:tc-2024-059184.
doi: 10.1136/tc-2024-059184. Online ahead of print.

Effect of tobacco sales bans on retail sales in Beverly Hills and Manhattan Beach, California, USA: a synthetic difference-in-differences analysis

Nita H Mukand  1 , Wendy B Max  2 , Rafael Colonna  3 , Elizabeth Andersen-Rodgers  3 , Justin S White  4   5
Affiliations

Effect of tobacco sales bans on retail sales in Beverly Hills and Manhattan Beach, California, USA: a synthetic difference-in-differences analysis

Nita H Mukand et al. Tob Control. .

Abstract

Background: On 1 January 2021, Beverly Hills and Manhattan Beach, California, became the first cities in the USA to ban tobacco product sales. We evaluated the effects of these policies on the sale of tobacco products and non-tobacco products by store in each city and its neighbouring area.

Methods: We used custom NielsenIQ retail scanner data by product and store to estimate actual and counterfactual sales trends for a set of convenience, grocery and drug stores in Beverly Hills and Manhattan Beach and their border areas using synthetic difference-in-differences models. Tobacco product unit sales were estimated overall and by tobacco product category. We also estimated changes in dollar sales of total non-tobacco products to evaluate broader economic impacts.

Results: Tobacco sales in included stores ceased within 3 months of the policy going into effect in Beverly Hills and nearly ceased by December 2021 in Manhattan Beach. A shift in cross-border shopping was detected for cigars only. Non-tobacco product sales did not significantly change in either city or the border area.

Conclusion: The tobacco sales bans in Beverly Hills and Manhattan Beach nearly eliminated local tobacco sales in the included stores, without prompting substantial cross-border shopping. Stability of non-tobacco product sales for included stores suggests these policies did not adversely affect local retail economies. These results suggest the viability of tobacco sales bans as an effective tobacco control strategy.

Keywords: Economics; End game; Public policy.

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing interests: The California Department of Public Health was involved in the study design, data collection, analysis, interpretation and writing. CDPH did not influence the results or outcomes of the study despite author affiliations with the funder. CDPH reviewed the text prior to submission and did not influence whether and where to submit for publication.

Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Trends in quarterly unit sales of all tobacco products between treated and border areas with their synthetic control before and after the local tobacco sales bans in effect Note: This figure shows trends over time in quarterly total unit sales of all tobacco products (including ENDS) per store for the treated or border area and its synthetic control. Estimates are derived from synthetic difference-in-differences models that include covariates for store type (convenience, grocery, and drug) and whether the city had a flavor policy implemented during the study period, the model also includes store and quarter-year fixed effects. Data were analyzed at the store-quarter level and included a set of convenience, grocery, and drug stores.
Figure 2.
Figure 2.
Change over time in the effects of tobacco sales bans on quarterly unit sales of all tobacco products in treated and border areas Note: This figure displays event-study coefficients and 95% confidence intervals for the effects of local tobacco sales bans relative to the quarter when the policy went into effect, indicated by the vertical dotted line. The vertical axis displays the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT), representing the difference in total unit sales per store between the treated or commuting border area and its synthetic control, expressed as a percent change relative to the outcome in the pre-policy period. Estimates are derived from synthetic difference-in-differences models that include covariates for store type (convenience, grocery, and drug) and whether the city had a flavor policy implemented during the study period, as well as store and quarter-year fixed effects. Data were analyzed at the store-quarter level and included a set of convenience, grocery, and drug stores.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. City of Manhattan Beach. An Ordinance of the City of Manhattan Beach Amending Manhattan Beach Municipal Code Chapter 4.118 to Prohibit The Sale of All Tobacco Products and Electronic Smoking Devices, and Making a Finding of Exemption Under The California Environmental Quality Act. Ordinance No 20-0007, 2020.
    1. City of Beverly Hills. An Ordinance of the City of Beverly Hills Amending Article 21 of Chapter 2 of Title 4 of the Beverly Hills Municipal Code to Prohibit the Retail Sale of Tobacco Products and Electronic Cigarette Paraphernalia, and Making a Finding of Exemption Under the California Environmental Quality Act. Ordinance No 19-O-2783, 2019.
    1. Welwean RA, Stupplebeen DA, Vuong TD, et al. Perspectives of licensed tobacco retailers on tobacco sales bans in Manhattan Beach and Beverly Hills, California. Tob Control 2022;31(e2):e213–e14. doi: 10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2021-056996 - DOI - PubMed
    1. McDaniel PA, Smith EA, Malone RE. Retailer experiences with tobacco sales bans: lessons from two early adopter jurisdictions. Tob Control 2023:tc-2023-057944. doi: 10.1136/tc-2023-057944 - DOI - PubMed
    1. Henriksen L, Andersen-Rodgers E, Voelker DH, et al. Evaluations of Compliance With California’s First Tobacco Sales Bans and Tobacco Marketing in Restricted and Cross-Border Stores. Nicotine Tob Res 2024;26(9):1159–65. doi: 10.1093/ntr/ntae043 - DOI - PMC - PubMed

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