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Review
. 2025 Oct 17;28(11):113787.
doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2025.113787. eCollection 2025 Nov 21.

How energy and chemistry converge for a fossil-free future

Jan Mertens  1   2 , Christian Breyer  3 , Ronnie Belmans  4   5 , Corinne Gendron  6 , Patrice Geoffron  7 , Carolyn Fischer  8   9 , Elodie Du Fornel  1 , Olivier Ledent  10 , Richard Lester  11 , Kimberly A Nicholas  12 , Laura Megrelis  1 , Paulo Emilio Valadão de Miranda  13 , Celine Paton  9 , Alice Prudhomme  1 , Peter Verwee  1 , Olivier Sala  1 , Michael Webber  14 , Koenraad Debackere  15
Affiliations
Review

How energy and chemistry converge for a fossil-free future

Jan Mertens et al. iScience. .

Abstract

The chemical industry must undergo a dual transformation: electrifying energy use and defossilizing carbon feedstocks. This paper, developed by ENGIEs Scientific Council, examines how energy and chemistry can converge to enable this shift. We assess the roles of biomass, recycled plastics, and CO2 as sustainable carbon sources and explore the enabling potential of electrification, low-carbon hydrogen, and direct air capture. Novel process pathways and infrastructure scenarios are analyzed to highlight strategic opportunities for cross-sectoral collaboration. Our findings underscore the need for coordinated investment, policy support, and alignment with renewable energy geography to achieve a resilient, fossil-free future.

Keywords: earth sciences; energy policy; energy resources; energy sustainability; energy systems.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

None
Graphical abstract
Figure 1
Figure 1
The chemical sector’s direct emissions account for around 4% of global CO2 emissions or 1.3 GtCO2 (IEA, 2023), of which ammonia, methanol, and ethylene production take a 70% share These direct emissions are only one-third of the total carbon footprint of the sector, with two-thirds incorporated in the end products referred to as downstream scope 3 emissions.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Estimated global supply and demand of sustainable CO2 in 2050 across multiple scenarios Supply estimates exceed predicted demand; the mismatch highlights the need for DAC to supplement biogenic sources.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Comparison of two pathways for integrating biomass-derived carbon into the chemical industry: the left pathway illustrates decentralized biomethane production via anaerobic digestion (1G) and/or pyro-hydrothermal gasification (2G), with subsequent injection into the gas grid and transport of biogenic CO2 via a future CO2 grid to chemical plants The right pathway shows centralized biomass-to-chemicals conversion, where biomass is transported to chemical plants for on-site processing.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Projected development timeline and maturity levels of key technologies for fuel and feedstock substitution in the chemical industry, based on author’s synthesis Each technology is mapped across a timeline from 2025 to 2050, indicating stages of development from pilot (●), to technology mature (▪), to market mature (dotted line).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. IEA World Energy Outlook 2023: final report. 2023. https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2023
    1. Mertens J., Breyer C., Belmans R., Gendron C., Geoffron P., Fischer C., Du Fornel E., Lester R., Nicholas K.A., Valadão de Miranda P.E., et al. Assessing Carbon Removal Technologies: Integrating Technical Potential with Environmental, Social, Governance Criteria and Sequestration Permanence. iScience. 2024;27 doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2024.111418. - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. IPCC . In: Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team. Lee H., Romero J., editors. IPCC; Geneva, Switzerland: 2023. Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report; p. 184. - DOI
    1. EU Proposal for a regulation for the European Parliament and of the council amending Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 establishing the framework for achieving climate neutrality. 2025. https://climate.ec.europa.eu/document/download/e1b5a957-c6b9-4cb2-a247-b...
    1. Galán-Martín Á., Tulus V., Díaz I., Pozo C., Pérez-Ramírez J., Guillén-Gosálbez G. Sustainability footprints of a renewable carbon transition for the petrochemical sector within planetary boundaries. One Earth. 2021;4:565–583. doi: 10.1016/j.oneear.2021.04.001. - DOI

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