Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2025 Nov 20;20(11):e0324399.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0324399. eCollection 2025.

Transforming tropical peatland governance to manage climate risks using the Three Horizons method

Mark S Reed  1 , Dianna Kopansky  2 , Sam Beechener  1 , Alexa Green  1 , Patrick Scheel  2 , Ian Kendrick  3 , Ifo Averti Suspense  4 , Corneille Ewango  5 , Euridice N Honorio Coronado  6 , Carlos Gabriel Hidalgo Pizango  7 , Manuel Martin Brañas  7 , Margarita Del Aguila Villacorta  7 , Haruni Krisnawati  8 , Ioan Fazey  9 , Susan Page  10 , Lindsay C Stringer  9   11 , Carly Maynard  1 , Johannes Kieft  12 , Tom Curtis  13 , Sian Allen  13 , Montserrat Costa-Font  1 , Rosie Everett  1 , Emmanuel-Tsadok N Mihaha  14
Affiliations

Transforming tropical peatland governance to manage climate risks using the Three Horizons method

Mark S Reed et al. PLoS One. .

Abstract

Tropical peatlands occupy at least 440,000 km2 and are estimated to store around 100 megatons of carbon, but are exposed to risks from both current and anticipated future changes in climate. Integrating knowledge from diverse sources using methods that can manage complexity is vital in order to identify transformational governance options for managing climate risks in these multifunctional social-ecological systems. This paper breaks new ground by applying the Three Horizons method to the governance of tropical peatlands. It evaluates the capacity for this method to generate transformative options that address conceptual and existential risks, as well as visible climate risks, whilst integrating research evidence with local knowledge. The paper focuses on countries that collectively represent the majority of global tropical peatland area and emissions, combining evidence from the literature with in-country expertise through Three Horizons workshops in Peru, Democratic Republic of Congo and Republic of Congo, and additional business-to-business engagement in Indonesia. The paper identifies a number of pathways that could transform the resilience of habitats and populations dependent on tropical peatlands, with community empowerment and payments for ecosystem services emerging as key themes across all four countries. Drawing on these findings, recommendations are made for managing climate risks through tropical peatland conservation, restoration and sustainable management. Application of the Three Horizons method demonstrates the critical role of integrating multiple knowledge sources to structure dialogues that can create credible and socially acceptable policy options for managing complex social-ecological systems.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

MSR is Research Lead for the IUCN UK Peatland Programme (where he sits on the Executive Board for the Peatland Code), co-chair of the UNEP Global Peatlands Initiative Research Working Group, an advisor to English and Scottish governments on peatlands, a volunteer board director for Huntly Development Trust, and volunteer advisor to The Habitat People, Highlands Rewilding and the Broadway Initiative’s Nature Market Dialogue. DSK was the coordinator of the UNEP Global Peatlands Initiative for the duration of the research. This does not alter our adherence to PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials.

Figures

Fig 1
Fig 1. Research design, showing how literature review was integrated with empirical research in Peru, Democratic Republic of Congo and Republic of Congo, and insights from business-to-business (B2B) engagement in the Riau region of Indonesia.
Fig 2
Fig 2. Distribution of global peatlands according to the Global Peatlands Assessment, showing the location of the study countries in blue (Source: Global Peatlands Assessment data retrieved from the Global Peatland Database compiled by the Greifswald Mire Centre.
UNEP. Global Peatlands Assessment – The State of the World’s Peatlands: Evidence for Action Toward the Conservation, Restoration, and Sustainable Management of Peatlands. Main Report. Nairobi: United Nations Environment Programme; 2022. The map is based on data from the Global Peatlands Assessment and the Global Peatland Database, which is publicly accessible via the UNEP World Environment Situation Room: https://wesrmapportal.unep.org/portal/apps/experiencebuilder/experience/?id=33b49f8757c441faae975671c2425241).
Fig 3
Fig 3. Visualisation of the Three Horizons framework (adapted from [32]).
Fig 4
Fig 4. Continued.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. UNEP. Global peatlands assessment – the state of the world’s peatlands: evidence for action toward the conservation, restoration, and sustainable management of peatlands. Nairobi: United Nations Environment Programme. 2022.
    1. Leifeld J, Menichetti L. The underappreciated potential of peatlands in global climate change mitigation strategies. Nat Commun. 2018;9(1):1071. doi: 10.1038/s41467-018-03406-6 - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. Shukla PR, Skea J, Calvo Buendia E, Masson-Delmotte V, Pörtner HO, Roberts DC. Climate Change and Land: An IPCC Special Report on Climate Change, Desertification, Land Degradation, Sustainable Land Management, Food Security, and Greenhouse Gas Fluxes in Terrestrial Ecosystems. Shukla PR, Skea J, Calvo Buendia E, Masson-Delmotte V, Pörtner HO, Roberts DC. Geneva: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2019.
    1. Leifeld J, Wüst-Galley C, Page S. Intact and managed peatland soils as a source and sink of GHGs from 1850 to 2100. Nat Clim Chang. 2019;9(12):945–7.
    1. Joosten H. Current soil carbon loss and land degradation globally: Where are the hotspots and why there?. In: Banwart SA, Noellemeyer E, Milne E. Soil Carbon: Science, Management and Policy for Multiple Benefits. Wallingford, UK: CABI. 2015. 224–34.