"Vulnerabilities and compound risks of escalating climate disasters in the Brazilian Amazon"

Abstract

The Brazilian Amazon is severely impacted by extreme climate events, with 1.8 million people (6.4% of the Brazilian Amazon's population) affected by climate-related disasters each year between 2018 and 2022. Yet, how climate disasters specifically affect human populations in different municipalities in the Amazon is underexplored. We target this gap, presenting a region-wide spatiotemporal assessment of climate-related disasters and social vulnerability across the Brazilian Amazon over the period 2000-2022, considering floods, droughts, heatwaves, fires, and landslides, and using a compound risk lens. Analysis of secondary data shows disaster frequency surged, with wet events rising fivefold, fires tenfold, and droughts and heatwaves tripling. Economic losses rose 370% reaching USD 634.2 million annually, with wet events most damaging. Farming sustained over 60% of total losses, followed by infrastructure, housing, and health services. Smaller municipalities, which host 61% of the region's Indigenous population, experienced the highest relative impacts, including a 9.58% loss in economic growth and lower Social Progress Index scores. Data on non-economic losses and damages were lacking, but further exacerbated the impacts in these vulnerable areas. Findings underscore that climate change is a poverty multiplier, and highlight the urgent need for adaptation policy interventions to be justice-centered.

Fig. 1. Number of climate disasters over municipalities in the Brazilian Amazon from 2000–2022.

A Spatial distribution of total number of disasters by municipality and disaster typology from 2000 to 2022; B Temporal distribution of disasters over the study years in all municipalities. C Total number of disasters by climate typology from 2000–2022. Data Source: Brazilian Atlas of Disasters. Graphic and map design by Rafaella Almeida Silvestrini, using Microsoft Excel (Microsoft 365) and ArcGIS Pro v3.1.3, respectively. Post-editing by Carolina Guyot in Adobe Illustrator v 28.7.7.Basemap sources: state and municipality boundaries from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

Fig. 2. Population exposed to disasters in the municipalities of the Brazilian Amazon over the period 2000–20022.

A Temporal distribution of number of people affected by disaster typology (millions/year) and percentage of population exposed considering all disasters; B Maximum annual percentage of affected people between 2000–2022 and its corresponding disaster typology by municipality. Graphic and map design by Rafaella Almeida Silvestrini, using Microsoft Excel (Microsoft 365) and ArcGIS Pro v.3.1.3, respectively. Post-editing by Carolina Guyot in Adobe Illustrator v 28.7.7.Basemap sources: state and municipality boundaries from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

Fig. 3. Asset losses due to climate disasters in the Brazilian Amazon.

A Annual economic losses by disaster type. B Total losses from 2000 to 2022, categorized by disaster type and affected sectors. Data source: Brazilian Digital Atlas of Disasters. Graphic design by Rafaella Almeida Silvestrini, using Microsoft Excel (Microsoft 365). Post-editing by Carolina Guyot in Adobe Illustrator v 28.7.7.

Fig. 4. Vulnerability to climate disasters based on municipalities’ population size.

Vulnerability is represented on the X-axis by population size and on the Y-axis as follows: A number of climate disasters; B Social Progress Index; C Indigenous population; and D Loss to Economic Growth ratio. Graphic design by Rafaella Almeida Silvestrini, using Microsoft Excel (Microsoft 365). Post-editing by Carolina Guyot in Adobe Illustrator v 28.7.7.

Fig. 5. Compound risk in each municipality, analyzing both population exposure in the year of the most extreme disaster and total economic loss in relation to economic growth.

A Scatterplot classifies municipalities into 4 different levels of risk: red (high/high), grouping municipalities in which more than 50% of the population was affected in the most extreme disaster year and in which total economic losses surpassed 50% of municipality economic growth; yellow (high/low), grouping municipalities in which more than 50% of population was affected in the most extreme disaster year, but total economic losses were less than 50% of municipality economic growth; green (low/high), comprising municipalities with less than 50% people affected in the most extreme year and with total losses of more than 50% of economic growth; blue (low/low), comprising municipalities with less than 50% people affected in the most extreme year and with total losses of less than 50% of economic growth. B map showing the spatial distribution of compound risk (classification obtained in A) Graphic and map design by Rafaella Almeida Silvestrini, using Microsoft Excel (Microsoft 365) and ArcGIS Pro v3.1.3, respectively. Post-editing by Carolina Guyot in Adobe Illustrator v 28.7.7.Basemap sources: state and municipality boundaries from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).