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. 2025 Nov 25;15(1):45290.
doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-28594-2.

Estimating the realised economic value of a historic Mediterranean fruit fly eradication

David A Rolls  1 , John M Kean  2 , Alan Flynn  3 , Tom Kompas  1 , Andrew P Robinson  1
Affiliations

Estimating the realised economic value of a historic Mediterranean fruit fly eradication

David A Rolls et al. Sci Rep. .

Abstract

Biosecurity decision-making typically weighs up predicted future outcomes and impacts, but only rarely do we look back to assess and learn from historical decisions. Here, we quantified the contemporary benefits realised from a successful biosecurity action informed by over 100 years of subsequent economic data. New Zealand's 1907-08 eradication of invading Mediterranean fruit fly (medfly) incursions facilitated ongoing access to premium fresh fruit markets. Our results estimate cumulative losses to 2020 for apple and kiwifruit exports, had medfly not been eradicated, at 7.6 to 10.2 billion NZD 2022 equivalent. The greatest economic harm would have been loss of market access for kiwifruit exports, which did not even begin until seventy years after the 1907-08 eradications. This example demonstrates massive time-lagged benefits from a biosecurity action and informs the long-term considerations that biosecurity managers regularly face in deciding how to respond to incursions of exotic organisms.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declarations. Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Map of New Zealand showing standardized cadastral land districts used for analysis and the approximate locations of medfly incursions. The Auckland district combines a number of historical districts; Gisborne was a separate district from 1923.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
New Zealand orchard areas estimated for apples (red), kiwifruit (green) and all fruits (blue). Complete data are indicated by filled circles, while empty circles show data obtained by modelling or interpolation.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Total New Zealand export earnings for apples (red) and kiwifruit (green).
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Realised mean value of kiwifruit (left) and apple (right) exports to premium Tier 1, 2 and 3 markets, relative to the mean value of Tier 4 markets.
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Estimated annual benefits of fruit fly freedom for New Zealand’s kiwifruit (green) and apple (red) exports. Line width indicates the difference between best and worst case estimates.
Fig. 6
Fig. 6
Estimated economic impacts of fruit fly freedom for New Zealand’s kiwifruit and apple exports as a proportion of GDP. Line width reflects the difference between best and worst case estimates. Direct export earnings are extrapolated to wider economic impacts using a multiplier of 2.14, based on Underwood.
Fig. 7
Fig. 7
Illustration of how historical data (ovals) were used to estimate the counterfactual and infer export earnings from kiwifruit and apples had fruit flies been present in New Zealand.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Thomas, M. C. et al. Mediterranean fruit fly, Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann) (Insecta: Diptera: Tephritidae). EDIS (2004). 10.32473/edis-in371-2001 (2001).
    1. New Zealand Department of Agriculture. The Fifteenth Report of the Department of Agriculture. (1907).
    1. Dominiak, B. C. & Daniels, D. Review of the past and present distribution of Mediterranean fruit fly (Ceratitis capitata Wiedemann) and Queensland fruit fly (Bactrocera Tryoni Froggatt) in Australia. Aust. J. Entomol.51, 104–115. 10.1111/j.1440-6055.2011.00842.x (2012). - DOI
    1. Marlborough Express. A fruit pest. Need for vigilance. The Marlborough Express vol. XLI, 289 (7 December) p. 8. (1907). https://paperspast.natlib.govt.nz/newspapers/MEX19071207.2.48
    1. Auckland Star The fruit fly. Matter before Cabinet. Auckl. Star XXXVII (Issue 247), p3 (1906). https://paperspast.natlib.govt.nz/newspapers/AS19061023.2.22 (23 October).

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