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. 2025 Dec 1.
doi: 10.1007/s44197-025-00478-8. Online ahead of print.

False-Positive Screening, Over-Referral, and Length of time between Cervical Cancer Early Detection and Confirmed Diagnosis Over Nine Years in Lusaka, Zambia

Rachael E Hinkel  1 , Mulele Kalima  2 , Susan C Msadabwe  3 , Catherine K Mwaba  3 , Fred C Ng'uni  2 , Ronald Fisa  4 , Bushimbwa C Tambatamba  5 , Alick Chuba  6 , Mario J Trejo  7 , Kennedy Lishimpi  8 , Amr S Soliman  9
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Free article

False-Positive Screening, Over-Referral, and Length of time between Cervical Cancer Early Detection and Confirmed Diagnosis Over Nine Years in Lusaka, Zambia

Rachael E Hinkel et al. J Epidemiol Glob Health. .
Free article

Abstract

Purpose: While Zambia has an efficient program for early detection of cervical cancer, most cases are diagnosed at advanced stages. This study examined the time between suspecting cancers at screening clinics and histopathologic confirmation of cervical cancer in the Lusaka Province of Zambia.

Methods: This study included the records of 3,483 women with suspected cancerous lesions identified by visual inspection of the cervix (VIA) who were referred from Lusaka Province screening facilities from 2014 to 2022. The study linked screening records with corresponding histopathologic results of the lesions after examination at the University Teaching Hospital. Variables abstracted from the medical records included age, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) status, district of residence and referral clinic, and dates of referral and confirmed diagnosis.

Results: False-positive VIA results constituted about 90% of all referrals. Women living with HIV (WLWH) had longer wait times between screening referrals and receipt of histopathologic results, most notably women coming from rural settings (median of 146 days) compared to urban settings (median of 69 days) (p < 0.05). Among women diagnosed with low-grade intraepithelial lesions, WLWH had a 63% higher risk of confirmed cancer diagnosis (CI: 1.16, 2.29) than women not living with HIV. For high-grade intraepithelial lesions, the adjusted HR showed WLWH having a 17% (CI: 0.89, 1.53) higher risk of confirmed cancer diagnosis compared to women not living with HIV.

Conclusion: The high rate of false-positives and long wait times call for expanded service infrastructure, particularly in rural settings, and continuing provider education/training to optimize screening sensitivity and shorten wait times in the Lusaka Province. Such measures may reduce the overload on the existing histopathology infrastructure and may provide lessons for other limited-resource countries facing similar cancer control and prevention challenges.

Keywords: Cervical cancer; False positive; HIV; Visual inspection of the cervix (VIA); Zambia.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declarations. Ethics Approval and Consent to Participate: o The study was approved by the institutional review boards of the University of Arizona and the University of Zambia. Consent for Publication: o All the co-authors consented to the publication of the manuscript. Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests.

References

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