Coaching strategies and performance patterns in elite Italian football: a comparative analysis of possession and direct-play styles

Abstract

Background: This study examines how coaching strategies influence performance patterns in elite Italian football, comparing the possession-based "building-from-the-back" style with a direct approach.

Methods: Observational data from all 380 matches of the 2022-2023 Serie A season, sourced from a public online platform, were categorized by playing style based on goalkeeper distribution patterns.

Results: Teams favoring the "building-from-the-back" strategy (Group 1) achieved superior results compared to those adopting direct play (Group 2). On average, Group 1 earned more points (63.8±14.4 vs. 40.2±14.1, P<0.002), scored more goals (57.3±10.5 vs. 40.1±12.5, P=0.004), and conceded fewer (42.4±10.4 vs. 55.0±10.9, P=0.017). They also recorded a higher goal difference (+14.9 vs. -14.9, P=0.003), greater ball possession (53.1±4.3% vs. 46.9±5.0%, P=0.009), more shot-creating actions (906.6±128.4 vs. 777.9±133.2, P=0.041), and more goal-scoring actions (97.7±17.3 vs. 64.8±24.0, P=0.003). Logistic regression showed that teams using build-up play were 13.5 times more likely to qualify for European competitions (95% CI: 1.20-152.0), with six of the seven qualified teams adopting this style. Effect sizes across metrics were consistently large (Cohen's d: 0.94-1.65).

Conclusions: Possession-oriented teams outperformed direct-play teams in both offensive and defensive indicators, underscoring the strategic role of coaches in orchestrating effective build-up play. These descriptive findings highlight how tactical choices are strongly associated with measurable outcomes in elite Italian football, offering data-driven insights for coaching methodologies and future research.