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Meta-Analysis
. 2026 Feb;58(2):307-316.
doi: 10.1038/s41588-025-02483-w. Epub 2026 Feb 5.

Global multi-ancestry genome-wide analyses identify genes and biological pathways associated with thyroid cancer and benign thyroid diseases

Samantha L White  1 Maizy S Brasher  1 Jack Pattee  2 Wei Zhou  3   4   5 Sinéad Chapman  6 Yon Ho Jee  7 Caitlin C Bell  8 Taylor L Jamil  9 Martin Barrio  10 Christopher H Arehart  11   12 Luke M Evans  11   12 Jibril Hirbo  13   14 Nancy J Cox  13   14 Peter Straub  13   14 Shinichi Namba  15   16   17 Emily Bertucci-Richter  18 Lindsay Guare  19 Ahmed Edris  20 Sam Morris  20 Ashley J Mulford  21 Haoyu Zhang  1 Brian Fennessy  22 Martin D Tobin  23   24 Jing Chen  23 Alexander T Williams  23 Catherine John  23   24 David A van Heel  25 Rohini Mathur  26 Sarah Finer  26 Marta R Moksnes  27   28 Ben M Brumpton  27   29   30 Bjørn Olav Åsvold  27   29   31 Raitis Peculis  32 Vita Rovite  32 Ilze Konrade  33 Ying Wang  3 Kristy Crooks  34 Sameer Chavan  34 Matthew J Fisher  34 Nicholas Rafaels  34 Meng Lin  1   34 Jonathan A Shortt  1   34 Alan R Sanders  21   35 David C Whiteman  36 Stuart MacGregor  36 Sarah E Medland  36 Unnur Thorsteinsdóttir  37   38 Kári Stefánsson  37   38 Tugce Karaderi  39 Kathleen M Egan  40 Therese Bocklage  41   42 Hilary C McCrary  43   44 Gregory Riedlinger  45 Bodour Salhia  46   47 Craig Shriver  48 Minh D Phan  49   50 Janice L Farlow  51 Stephen Edge  52   53 Varinder Kaur  54   55 Michelle L Churchman  56 Robert J Rounbehler  56 Pamela L Brock  57 Matthew D Ringel  57   58 Milton Pividori  1   34   59 Rebecca Schweppe  8   60 Christopher D Raeburn  10 Robin G Walters  20 Zhengming Chen  20 Liming Li  61   62   63 Koichi Matsuda  64   65 Yukinori Okada  15   16   17 Sebastian Zöllner  18 Anurag Verma  19 Penn Medicine BioBankMichael H Preuss  22 Eimear Kenny  22 Audrey E Hendricks  1 Lauren Fishbein  1   8   60   66 Peter Kraft  7   67 Mark J Daly  3   4   68 Benjamin M Neale  3   4   68 Virtual Thyroid Biopsy ConsortiumColorado Center for Personalized MedicineGenes & Health Research TeamBioBank Japan ProjectAlicia R Martin  3   4   68   69 Joanne B Cole  1   59 Bryan R Haugen  8   60 Global Biobank Meta-analysis InitiativeChristopher R Gignoux  70   71   72   73 Nikita Pozdeyev  74   75   76   77
Collaborators, Affiliations
Meta-Analysis

Global multi-ancestry genome-wide analyses identify genes and biological pathways associated with thyroid cancer and benign thyroid diseases

Samantha L White et al. Nat Genet. 2026 Feb.

Abstract

Thyroid diseases are common and highly heritable. We performed a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies from 19 biobanks for five thyroid diseases: thyroid cancer (ThC), benign nodular goiter, Graves' disease, lymphocytic thyroiditis and primary hypothyroidism. We analyzed genetic association data from ~2.9 million genomes and identified 313 known and 570 new independent loci linked to thyroid diseases. We discovered genetic correlations between ThC, benign nodular goiter and autoimmune thyroid diseases (rg = 0.16-0.97). Telomere maintenance genes contributed to benign and malignant thyroid nodular disease risk, whereas cell cycle, DNA repair and damage response genes were associated with ThC. We propose a paradigm that explains genetic predisposition to benign and malignant thyroid nodules. We found polygenic risk score associations with ThC risk of structural disease recurrence, tumor size, multifocality, lymph node metastases and extranodal extension. Polygenic risk scores identified individuals with aggressive ThC in a biobank, creating an opportunity for genetically informed population screening.

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing interests: N.P. and B.R.H. received research support from Veracyte, unrelated to this study. B.R.H. is the Clinical Liaison for ThyroSeq at Sonic Healthcare USA. N.P., S.L.W., B.R.H. and C.R.G. filed a provisional patent application 151077-00053PR2 with the United States Patent and Trademark Office dedicated to the use of a PRS for ThC diagnosis. The other authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1. Study design.
I. The VTB Consortium was established within the framework of the GBMI. The participating biobanks performed GWAS for five thyroid diseases. II. An inverse-variance-weighted meta-analysis was conducted after quality control procedures. Previously known and new independent genetic associations were identified. III. Functional inference studies included genetic correlation analysis with cov-LDSC. Asterisks denote Benjamini–Hochberg false discovery rate (FDR) < 0.05. IV. TWAS (FUSION and S-PrediXcan). V. Pathway (KEGG and Reactome) and gene expression analyses (TCGA and ORIEN AVATAR). VI. PRS were developed for ThC, benign thyroid diseases and to distinguish malignant and benign thyroid nodules. VII. PRS were tested for association with thyroid diseases and aggressive ThC features extracted from clinical charts and surgical histopathology reports.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2. Pleiotropic and phenotype-specific loci associated with thyroid diseases in the meta-analysis of GWAS.
The heatmap illustrates the genetic correlation (rg) between thyroid phenotypes, which was estimated using cov-LDSC. The asterisks denote significance at a Benjamini–Hochberg FDR < 0.05. Circular plots highlight loci significantly associated with ThC and BNG (right) and autoimmune thyroid diseases (left). Right, The red and blue dots, along with the gene labels, indicate loci predominantly associated with ThC and BNG, respectively. Left, The red dots indicate loci significantly associated with GD but not with LT or primary hypothyroidism. PTCSC2 (right, yellow) is the only locus inversely associated with ThC and BNG (Supplementary Tables 6.1–6.6 list all loci).
Fig. 3
Fig. 3. The ThC PRS.
Two ThC PRS were developed: PRSThC versus All to identify individuals at risk in a population and PRSThC versus BNG for the clinically relevant task of discriminating malignant and benign thyroid nodules. PRS were tested in the CCPM population, which was not used for PRS development. a, AUCs (n = 94,561; 1,343 ThCs). b, ThC risk according to PRS decile. The error bars denote the 95% CI calculated as ± s.e. × 1.96 surrounding the odds ratio (OR). c, PRS association with features of aggressive ThC. P values were calculated using a two-sided Wald test. Asterisks indicate ThC risk features significantly associated with PRS at a nominal (black; *P ≤ 0.05) or Bonferroni-corrected (blue; **P ≤ 1.7 × 10−3) significance threshold. Raw PRS and ThC risk features are listed in Supplementary Table 16.
Fig. 4
Fig. 4. Germline genetic susceptibility to ThC and BNG.
We hypothesize that two biological processes with distinct genetic architecture cause thyroid nodules: (1) hyperplasia, a polyclonal follicular cell proliferation with no malignant potential; and (2) neoplasia, a clonal growth driven by somatic genetic alterations. Neoplastic nodules can be benign or malignant, and the mismatch between biological mechanisms (hyperplasia and neoplasia) and GWAS phenotype definitions (benign and malignant thyroid nodules) has led to apparent genetic pleiotropy. The pathway and genes associated with BNG but not ThC in the GWAS meta-analysis (for example, the insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF1) and fibroblast growth factor (FGF) signaling pathways) predispose to benign nodules. Pathways and genes associated with both BNG and ThC (for example, telomere maintenance) predispose to neoplastic thyroid nodules, either benign or malignant. In the absence of other genetic risk factors, patients develop benign adenomas or low-risk ThCs. Alternatively, genetic alterations in cell cycle and DNA damage response genes (associated predominantly with ThC but not BNG in the GWAS meta-analysis) predispose to high-risk ThC.
Extended Data Fig. 1
Extended Data Fig. 1. Virtual Thyroid Biopsy Consortium.
The Consortium aggregated data from 19 biobanks, 10 countries, four continents, and ~2.9 million participants.
Extended Data Fig. 2
Extended Data Fig. 2. Prevalence of thyroid diseases across biobanks.
Genetic ancestry was estimated from GWAS summary data using Summix2.
Extended Data Fig. 3
Extended Data Fig. 3. Genetic correlation analysis for thyroid diseases in EUR-like GWAS meta-analysis.
Genetic correlations were estimated using covariate-adjusted linkage disequilibrium score regression. The asterisks denote Benjamini-Hochberg false discovery rate (FDR) < 0.05; p-values were generated using a two-sided Wald test.
Extended Data Fig. 4
Extended Data Fig. 4. mRNA expression of thyroid cancer-associated genes in normal thyroid tissue and thyroid cancer.
Genes were identified from ANNOVAR annotations of genome-wide significant variants in thyroid cancer GWAS meta-analysis and FUSION TWAS cis-eQTL analysis. The dark blue color indicates genes with high expression in normal thyroid tissue, where the thyroid is among the top three tissues with the highest expression in pan-tissue transcriptome analysis from the NCBI Gene database (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/gene). Positive (red) and negative (light blue) significant associations of mRNA expression with high-risk thyroid cancer features, such as earlier age at diagnosis, higher ERK score and lower thyroid differentiation score, etc., are shown. P-values were derived from a two-tailed t-test for linear regression (continuous variables) and a two-sided Wald test for logistic/ordinal regression (binary/ordinal variables). All regression analyses were adjusted for the major somatic oncogenic drivers, including BRAF V600E and N/H/KRAS. Significance threshold was adjusted using Bonferroni correction (p-value ≤ 1e-04). ORIEN - Oncology Research Information Exchange Network; TCGA – The Cancer Genome Atlas; AJCC - American Joint Committee on Cancer.
Extended Data Fig. 5
Extended Data Fig. 5. Scatterplot of effect sizes of the variants in PTCSC2 locus significantly (p-value < 5e-8) associated with thyroid cancer and benign nodular goiter.
ThC – thyroid cancer. BNG – benign nodular goiter. ρ- Spearman correlation. Shading highlights the regression line’s 95% confidence interval. P-value was calculated with a two-tailed t-test.
Extended Data Fig. 6
Extended Data Fig. 6. All of Us Research Program whole genome sequencing data analysis pipeline.
Variants (SNPs and indels) from participating biobanks GWAS summary data and the Polygenic Score Catalog (https://www.pgscatalog.org) were extracted from the All of Us Research Program Hail variant dataset v7 object.
Extended Data Fig. 7
Extended Data Fig. 7. Variant overlap in GWAS from participating Biobanks.
A fraction of variants that are identical by chromosome, position, reference and alternate allele in the harmonized GWAS summary are shown. The All of Us Research Program GWAS (top row) was performed on whole-genome sequencing data and was designed to maximize variant overlap with other biobanks.
Extended Data Fig. 8
Extended Data Fig. 8. Post-GWAS quality control pipeline.
AF – allele frequency. AC – allele count, cov-LDSC – covariate-adjusted linkage disequilibrium score regression. QQ plot – quantile-quantile plot.
Extended Data Fig. 9
Extended Data Fig. 9. Correlation of major continental ancestry fractions estimated by Summix2 (y-axis) and published by the Million Veteran Program, Colorado Center for Personalized Medicine and All of Us Research Program Biobanks (x-axis).
Multi-ancestry GWAS summary data were used for this analysis. Shading highlights the regression line’s 95% confidence interval. Pearson correlation coefficient p-value was calculated with a two-tailed t-test. MVP – Million Veteran Program. CCPM – Colorado Center for Personalized Medicine. AoU – All of Us Research Program.

Update of

  • Global multi-ancestry genetic study elucidates genes and biological pathways associated with thyroid cancer and benign thyroid diseases.
    White SL, Brasher MS, Pattee J, Zhou W, Chapman S, Jee YH, Bell CC, Jamil TL, Barrio M, Hirbo J, Cox NJ, Straub P, Namba S, Bertucci-Richter E, Guare L, EdrisMohammed A, Morris S, Mulford AJ, Zhang H, Fennessy B, Tobin MD, Chen J, Williams AT, John C, van Heel DA, Mathur R, Finer S, Moksnes MR, Brumpton B, Åsvold BO, Peculis R, Rovite V, Konrade I, Wang Y, Crooks K, Chavan S, Fisher MJ, Rafaels N, Lin M, Shortt J, Sanders AR, Whiteman D, MacGregor S, Medland S, Thorsteinsdóttir U, Stefánsson K, Karaderi T, Egan KM, Bocklage T, McCrary HC, Riedlingeer G, Salhia B, Shriver C, Phan MD, Farlow JL, Edge S, Kaur V, Churchman M, Rounbehler RJ, Brock PL, Ringel MD, Pividori M, Schweppe R, Raeburn CD, Walters R, Chen Z, Li L, Matsuda K, Okada Y, Zoellner S, Verma A, Preuss M, Kenny E, Hendricks A, Fishbein L, Kraft P, Daly M, Neale B; biobank at the Colorado Center for Personalized Medicine; Genes & Health Research Team; BioBank Japan Project; Martin A, Cole JB, Haugen BR, Gignoux CR, Pozdeyev N. White SL, et al. medRxiv [Preprint]. 2025 May 16:2025.05.15.25327513. doi: 10.1101/2025.05.15.25327513. medRxiv. 2025. Update in: Nat Genet. 2026 Feb;58(2):307-316. doi: 10.1038/s41588-025-02483-w. PMID: 40463558 Free PMC article. Updated. Preprint.

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