Seasonal patterns and dynamics of acute pancreatitis emergency department visits in Korea

Abstract

Background/objectives: The incidence of acute pancreatitis (AP) varies seasonally in some populations. However, evidence from Korea remains limited. This study aimed to investigate seasonal patterns of AP visits and evaluate potential infectious enteric pathogens contributing to this variation in both pediatric (≤18 years) and adult (>18 years) populations.

Methods: Nationwide emergency department (ED) data from the National Emergency Department Information System (NEDIS) were analyzed. The age-stratified seasonal variation in AP visits was modeled using negative binomial harmonic regression (NBHR) models with harmonic terms. Pearson correlation coefficients between AP visits and case counts of enteric infections were calculated to investigate potential infectious agents. Mediation analysis was performed to assess whether specific pathogens mediated the seasonal increase in AP visits.

Results: A total of 48,412 ED visits (1481 pediatric and 46,931 adult visits) resulting in hospital admission were included in the analysis. NBHR models revealed significant cyclical seasonality across age groups, with AP visits peaking in the summer. Correlation analysis revealed significant positive associations between AP visits and several pathogens. The mediation analysis suggested that substantial proportions of both Campylobacter and Salmonella species were temporally associated with the changes in AP visits.

Conclusions: This study demonstrated a pronounced summer peak in AP visits among both pediatric and adult populations in Korea. Campylobacter and Salmonella species may be linked to this seasonal pattern, suggesting a temporal association between infections with these species and AP seasonality. Further research is needed to clarify other mechanisms underlying seasonal AP surges and inform targeted preventive strategies.

Keywords: Bacteria; Epidemiology; Gastroenteritis; Pancreatitis; Periodicity.