Do intentions predict fertility? The experience in Taiwan, 1967-74

Abstract

Are responses to survey questions about desire for additional children useful in predicting future fertility? Data from Taiwan covering the years 1967--74, a period of rapid fertility decline and increasing contraceptive practice, indicate that reproductive intentions and contraceptive use were very good predictors of subsequent fertility. Whether more children were wanted was itself the most important determinant of contraceptive use. Aggregate consistency between attitudes and behavior was higher than found in US surveys during the same period. Similar studies are needed to determine whether statements of intentions have predictive value in other settings as well.

PIP: 2,055 cases are studied over a 7 year period with data from a 1967 longitudinal survey of a probability sample of women aged 18-39, from reinterviews in 1970 and from the Taiwan population register, 1971-1974. Results indicate that whether a woman had a birth was strongly related to whether she wanted more children and whether she was practicing contraception. Together these 2 variables predicted whether a child was born better than any combination of other demographic or socioeconomic variables. However multivariate analysis that included socio-demographic factors, marriage duration, parity, number of sons, education, as well as desire for children and contraceptive use reveal that marriage duration was the single most important determinant of whether an additional birth occurred, with desire for children showing a somewhat lower effect. Contraceptive use and parity are about equal in importance, but the number of sons does not have a significant effect. The multivariate model also indicates that whether more children are wanted is the most important determinant of contraceptive use, with education and marriage duration much lower in importance. Marriage duration is the most important determinant of whether an additional child is wanted, but parity and number of sons have substantial effects. It is concluded that the results indicate a high degree of rationalization of the fertility process in Taiwan.