A mathematical model for the 1973 cholera epidemic in the European Mediterranean region

Abstract

For the cholera epidemic that occurred in the European Mediterranean region in the summer of 1973, a simple deterministic mathematic model is proposed; it consists of a system of two ordinary differential equations which concern the evolution of the human infective population in a town community and of bacteria population in the sea. It is conjectured that the infection process obeys a non linear saturation-type law. A phase space analysis is performed for the system of equations. Conclusions are drawn which concern the evolution of the epidemic and which suggest some indications for the selection of public health policies. The validity of the model is compared with the available data for the town of Bari (Italy).