Forecasting the onset of a scrub typhus epidemic in the Pescadores Islands of Taiwan using daily maximum temperatures

Abstract

Daily maximum atmospheric temperatures were used to forecast the seasonal onset of scrub typhus in the Pescadores Islands of Taiwan. The day of the year on which the temperature first reached 30 degrees C was selected as the predictive base. Predictions for 1977 closely matched observed events. The model provides an easy and effective means to forecast the start of scrub typhus epidemics in the Pescadores Islands and could be used for such practical purposes as determining when prophylactic antibiotics should be administered to subjects whose risk of infection with Rickettsia tsutsugamushi is high.