[Mathematical models in epidemiological studies. I. Application to the epidemic of cholera verified in Bari in 1973]

Abstract

An analysis of the cholera epidemic which occurred in Bari in 1973, is carried out under the assumption that the main infection source has been the widespread consumption of "raw fish". The analysis is based on a chain-binomial model which appears to be suitable to describe the epidemic. A statistical evaluation of the parameters of the model confirms the initial hypothesis, owing to the observed rapid decreasing of the probability of infection, which occurs immediately after the disinfection of the sewage going into the sea.