An evaluation of influenza mortality surveillance, 1962-1979. I. Time series forecasts of expected pneumonia and influenza deaths

Abstract

Proposed in this paper is a new method of forecasting the expected number of pneumonia and influenza deaths based on a time series analysis of the historical mortality data. Currently, the method for forecasting the expected pneumonia and influenza deaths used by the Center for Disease Control is based on regression analysis. These forecasts are used to estimate the excess deaths attributable to pneumonia and influenza. Careful comparative analysis demonstrates that the proposed method provides a more accurate forecast of pneumonia and influenza mortality than the existing method.