Goodness-of-fit based confidence intervals for estimates of the size of a closed population

Abstract

Methods for estimating the size of a closed population often consist of fitting some model (e.g. a log-linear model) to data with a missing cell corresponding to the members of the population missed by all reporting sources. Although the use of the asymptotic standard error is the usual method for forming confidence intervals for the population total, the sample sizes are not always large enough to produce valid confidence intervals. We propose a method for forming confidence intervals based upon changes in a goodness-of-fit statistic associated with changes in trial values of the population total.