The deterrent effect of capital punishment during the 1950s

Abstract

This investigation examines the deterrence hypothesis of an inverse relationship between state execution rates and homicides. Although this question has received some attention in recent studies, the findings of these investigations are mixed. Cross-sectional analyses of states have typically shown execution and homicide rates to be positively associated, while at least two national time-series studies report support for the deterrence hypothesis. To test whether these divergent findings are result of the two different methodologies employed (cross-sectional vs. time-series), a methodology that combines the strengths of each is used in the present study. For the period 1950 to 1960, we examine cross-sectionally for states the relationship between changes in execution rates and changes in murder rates. This analysis does not find support for the deterrence argument for the certainty of the death penalty when a number of models of the execution rate--murder rate relationship are considered, and when a variety of imprisonment and socio-demographic factors are considered as control variables.