Statistical analysis of the direct count method for enumerating bacteria

Abstract

The direct count method for enumerating bacteria in natural environments is widely used. This paper analyzes the sources of variation contributed by the various levels of the method: subsamples, filters, and microscope fields. Based on a nested analysis of variance, we show that most of the variance (less than 80%) is caused by the fields and that the filters contributed nearly all of the remaining variance. The replication at each of the levels determines the total cost and error of a measurement. We compared several sampling schemes, including an optimal strategy which gives the lowest possible variance for a given cost. We recommend that preparing one filter from one subsample is adequate only if the samples are closely spaced in time or distance; otherwise, one filter should be prepared from two or preferably three subsamples. This sampling scheme emphasizes the importance of the highest level of replication. Our analysis shows that the accuracy of the direct count method can be substantially improved (by 20 to 50%) without a large increase in cost when the proper degree of replication at each level is performed.