The rate of development of new drugs in the United States, 1963 through 1975

Abstract

Information was obtained on 1,103 new chemical entities (NCEs) first tested in man from 1963 through mid-1975 by 36 U. S.-owned and 10 foreign-owned pharmaceutical companies operating in the U. S. Of these NCEs 1,029 reached the stage of IND filing. The portion of the U. S. industry responsible for the NCEs was relatively concentrated; 7 of the 36 companies accounted for half of the NCEs and 4 of these accounted for one-third. Although the annual worldwide rate of testing of NCEs by U. S. companies appeared to rise and then fall from 1963 through 1966, since 1966 the rate has been fairly constant. With time, however, a higher proportion of U. S.-owned NCEs is being first studied in man abroad. The annual rate of IND filings for U. S.-owned NCEs generally declined from 1965 to 1972, whereas the rate was fairly constant for foreign-owned NCEs over the entire period. The overall success rate in drug development has been low; nearly 90% of the NCEs studied in man are dropped prior to NDA submission, but about 88% of the NDAs submitted are approved for market. The 1974-1975 data indicate that the mean durations of the IND and NDA phase were then 4 and 2 years, respectively. However, there were variations in the time required for DNA approval between different pharmacologic areas. The data described in this paper represent the first baselines against which future trends in the processes of drug development and approval can be measured.