A flexible model for planning facilities for patients with end-stage renal failure

Abstract

Resource needs for patients with renal failure change as policies vary and survival improves. Thus a model was developed to estimate the facilities (number of beds) needed for such patients in the North-west Region; national resource needs could be obtained by multiplying the regional needs by eleven. The model predicted an unforeseen demand for hospital and satellite unit facilities and for unit back-up beds. The increasing survival of transplants is an important determinant of resource needs, and the model readily indicates the impact of changes in this factor.