Influenza surveillance in England and Wales using routine statistics. Development of 'cusum' graphs to compare 12 previous winters and to monitor the 1980/81 winter

Abstract

Surveillance of influenza in England and Wales is made by monitoring weekly data. Principal indices are deaths, sickness-benefit claims (SBC), laboratory reports and observations from general practitioners (GPs). The 12 winter 1968/9 to 1979/80 have been studied to see which indices best described size and timing of influenza epidemics. A method of plotting the data (called cusums) is suggested which makes it easier to see the effect of small epidemics. Cusums for GP statistics and respiratory deaths were found to be the most helpful indices for describing both size and timing of the epidemics, followed by total deaths and SBC, which were less specific to influenza, and influenza deaths, which lagged behind other indices. Deaths certified as pneumonia have been increasing over these years, whereas bronchitis deaths have been decreasing and these indices should not be used separately for monitoring. The laboratory reporting system is important. It confirms the presence of influenza virus in the community and indicates prevalent strains. Because it is a voluntary system with no defined population base the reports are not reliable numerically for estimating relative size of epidemics or for developing cusums. Cusum plots were unanimous in describing the winter of 1980/1 as one of little influenza activity.