How many die? A set of demographic estimates of the annual number of infant and child deaths in the world

Abstract

Estimates concerning the annual number of infant and child deaths in the world range from around 15 million to well over 30 million. Although infant and child mortality is difficult to measure with any precision, the range of uncertainty can be narrowed considerably through the application of standard demographic techniques to readily available population data. A set of estimates based on the most recent and authoritative data compilations points to a range of from 12-13 million to about 17-18 million infant and child deaths annually during the late 1970s, with an average of around 15 million. On the basis of what is known about mortality conditions of the world today, a figure much larger than the 17-18 million at the high end of this range would be extremely difficult to substantiate.