How many physicians is enough?: the debate over the supply of United States' physicians in context

Abstract

Physician manpower policy is a vital part of current efforts at United States health-care reform. The fundamentals of the ongoing debate over the adequacy of the national physician supply are: (1) what constitutes an adequate supply of physicians? (2) how does one determine if supply will be adequate in the future? (3) what are the consequences of having too many or too few physicians? and (4) what approaches could be taken to influence the size, specialty composition, or geographic distribution of the physician work force? Virtually all forecasts agree that the United States faces a future aggregate oversupply of physicians, with significant specialty imbalances. With these surpluses come economic costs that the nation appears unwilling to assume. Options for bringing physician supply into balance with requirements include reducing the numbers of new physicians entering active practice, increasing retirements, limiting availability of positions in oversubscribed specialties, and encouraging physicians to work in underserved areas.