The joint effects of race and age on the risk of end-stage renal disease attributed to hypertension

Abstract

To describe the joint effects of race and age on the risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) attributed to hypertension (ESRD-HT), we analyzed data for white and black adults, 20 to 84 years of age, reported by the United States Renal Data System during the period 1987 to 1990. The risk of ESRD-HT increased substantially with age for both blacks and whites; however, at each age, the risk was greater for blacks. A more in-depth description of the combination of effects involving race and age on ESRD-HT incidence was provided by two models of joint effects, one additive and the other multiplicative. Both models used the 20- to 24-year age group as the referent. Under the additive model the risk of ESRD-HT in blacks attributable to the joint effects between race and age increased continuously from younger to older groups. This indicates that although ESRD-HT risk increases with age for both blacks and whites, the increase for blacks is greater than expected if the effects of race were independent of the effects of age. However, the multiplicative model indicated that the proportional increase with age in ESRD-HT risk among blacks, as compared with whites, was more striking for younger ages (< or = 50 years among women and < or = 40 years among men), and especially so for men. This suggests a more accelerated course of hypertension toward ESRD for blacks (especially younger men) than for whites. A conceptual model to explain these patterns of race-age joint effects is proposed.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)