Prospects and programs for fertility reduction, 1990-2015

Abstract

What is the likelihood that each of the 37 developing countries with populations of 15 million or more in 1990 will reach replacement fertility by the year 2015? These countries have a combined population of 3.9 billion, 91 percent of the population of all developing countries. For this article, a composite index was used as the basis for predicting future levels of total fertility. The index was constructed from socioeconomic variables (life expectancy at birth, infant mortality rates, percent adult literacy, ratio of children enrolled in primary or secondary school, percent of the labor force in nonagricultural occupations, gross national product per capita, and percent of the population living in urban areas), total fertility rates for the years 1985-90, total fertility rate decline from 1960-65 to 1985-90, family planning program effort scores in 1989, and the level of contraceptive prevalence in 1990. Eight countries are classified as certain to reach replacement fertility by 2015, and an additional thirteen probably will also. Five countries are classified as possibly reaching replacement fertility, and eleven as unlikely to do so.

PIP: What is the likelihood of 37 countries with population of 15 million or greater reaching replacement fertility by 2015? The 37 countries had in 1990 a combined population of 3.9 billion, 91% of total developing country population. Bernard Berelson in 1978 assessed the likelihood of reaching a crude birth rate (CBR) of 20 births per year per 1000 population by the year 2000 for 4 groups of countries: 1) The Certain: Taiwan, South Korea, and Chile; 2) The Probable: China, Brazil, Mexico, Philippines, Thailand, Turkey, Colombia, Sri Lanka, Venezuela, and Malaysia; 3) The Possible: India, Indonesia, Egypt, and Peru; and 4) The Unlikely: Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nigeria, Iran, Zaire, Afghanistan, Sudan, Morocco, Algeria, Tanzania, Kenya, and Nepal. Those countries which by 1994 have already or almost reached replacement level include: Taiwan, South Korea, China, Thailand, Chile, and Sri Lanka. What accounts for the miscalculation is the slow growth between 1965-85 in gross national product, the smaller decline in total fertility rate [TFR], the smaller decrease in infant mortality and life expectancy, insufficient increases in literacy, and larger increase in males in nonagricultural labor. Contraceptive prevalence has increased and family planning efforts have improved. World TFRs declined by 33% between the 1960s and 1980s. Socioeconomic improvements are needed worldwide. Likelihood projections were based on socioeconomic setting, total fertility rate, total fertility rate decline, contraceptive prevalence, program effort score, and composite index. The certain group now includes China, both Koreas, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, and Thailand. The probable group includes India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, Argentina, Venezuela, Brazil, Peru, Egypt, Morocco, Turkey, and South Africa. The possible group includes Bangladesh, Myanmar, Algeria, Iran, and Kenya. The unlikely group is comprised of Afghanistan, Nepal, Pakistan, Iraq, Sudan, Ethiopia, Ghana, Nigeria, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zaire. When proximate determinants (marriage, contraceptive use, induced abortion, and breast feeding) are considered, the groups of countries change. TFR projections extrapolating from past trends compared to UN projections showed all the certain countries the same, 4 of the probable countries reaching a TFR of 2.3, and none of the possible or unlikely countries reaching replacement fertility.