Projected numbers of cancers diagnosed in the US elderly population, 1990 through 2030

Abstract

As based on Bureau of the Census population projections and age-specific cancer incidence rates for 1985 to 1989 from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results program, the number of incident cancers diagnosed annually in the United States among persons aged 65 and over is projected to reach 1.5 million by the year 2030, or 2.4 times the number estimated for 1990. These projections, which may be conservative because birth cohort patterns (based on Connecticut rates) suggest possible future increases in incidence rates for all cancer sites combined, have implications for planning expanded primary prevention efforts, such as smoking cessation (especially for women) and dietary modification programs, and for projecting health care needs and costs.