Trends in survival among persons with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome in New York City. The experience of the first decade of the epidemic

Abstract

This study examined survival trends among the 23,324 cases of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) meeting the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) definition that were diagnosed and reported to the New York City Department of Health from the beginning of the epidemic in 1980 through June 1989. The survival patterns of 20,760 individuals who survived for at least 1 calendar month beyond diagnosis were analyzed; all survival analyses were truncated at December 1, 1990, 17 months after the last diagnosis. Persons who died during the same month in which they were diagnosed ("zero" survivors) were excluded. Cases were examined by race/ethnicity, sex, age at diagnosis, calendar period of diagnosis, transmission category, CDC AIDS case definition (prior to and after the 1987 change in the AIDS case definition), and nature of diagnosis. Results of two- and three-way categorical analysis and logistic regression analysis are reported. Overall median survival time was 13.7 months (14.0 for males and 12.0 for females). Survival was better for whites than for blacks and Hispanics and was better for men who had sex with men than for injecting drug users. Each of the seven demographic and risk behavior factors was independently associated with survival. Trends in survival during three time periods indicated that survival is improving among all groups examined.