Parameter sensitivity of a model of viral epidemics simulated with Monte Carlo techniques. III. Optimization strategies

Abstract

The output of the sensitivity analysis system, SENSEN, described in the preceding two papers is applied to an optimization study for the VESPERS model of the spread of infection with influenza virus in a community. We know of no similar studies. In this application, constrained, non-linear optimization routines in IMSL are used. The optimization study attempts to answer whether behavioural modification (modeled as discrete interventions) is necessary to represent simultaneously the age-specific attack rates and the epidemic curve. The results presented here indicate that such model interventions are necessary.