A model for the assessment of the animal disease risks associated with the importation of animals and animal products

Abstract

A simple mathematical model to assess the disease risks associated with the importation of animals and animal products is presented. This model is dependent on the animal health and disease statistics reported by the Member Countries of the Office International des Epizooties (OIE), and provides a structured approach to using information about a particular importation. The model can incorporate any number of determinants; these may be related to the animal health status of the exporting country, the commodity (whether animal or animal product), the properties of the disease agent and the epidemiology of the disease. All disease risks can be considered. Examples illustrate the model with respect to the importation of cattle, swine and related products.