A genetic algorithm to improve a neural network to predict a patient's response to warfarin

Abstract

The ability of neural networks to predict the international normalised ratio (INR) for patients treated with Warfarin was investigated. Neural networks were obtained by using all the predictor variables in the neural network, or by using a genetic algorithm to select an optimal subset of predictor variables in a neural network. The use of a genetic algorithm gave a marked and significant improvement in the prediction of the INR in two of the three cases investigated. The mean error in these cases, typically, reduced from 1.02 +/- 0.29 to 0.28 +/- 0.25 (paired t-test, t = -4.71, p < 0.001, n = 30). The use of a genetic algorithm with Warfarin data offers a significant enhancement of the predictive ability of a neural network with Warfarin data, identifies significant predictor variables, reduces the size of the neural network and thus the speed at which the reduced network can be trained, and reduces the sensitivity of a network to over-training.