How safe were today's older drivers when they were younger?

Abstract

Data from the Fatal Accident Reporting System for 1975-1990 were used to perform longitudinal analyses of car driver fatality rates (driver fatalities per million population) for a 16-year period; for example, the fatality rate of drivers born in 1960 was examined for ages 15 years through 30 years. It was found that fatality rates for male drivers of a given age systematically decline with increasing birth year; for example, 20-year-olds born in 1970 have lower fatality rates than do 20-year-olds born in 1960. The fatality rates for cohorts of drivers of either sex do not begin to increase appreciably until about age 70 years, and then they approximately double by age 80 years. These increases are of a lesser magnitude, and occur later, than those found in the earlier cross-sectional analyses that identified the "older driver problem."