Changed incidence and case-fatality rates of first-ever stroke between 1970 and 1993 in Tartu, Estonia

Abstract

Background and purpose: The incidence of stroke has stabilized or increased in several developed countries recently, but few data about the trends are available from Eastern Europe. The study was designed to evaluate the possible changes of stroke incidence in Estonia.

Methods: A population-based stroke registry was conducted in Tartu during 1991 through 1993 (mean population, 110,631) to compare it with the study of 1970 through 1973 (population, 90,459). The majority of stroke patients were recorded prospectively, and most were hospitalized and evaluated by a neurologist. All available medical records were reviewed. Only first-ever stroke cases were registered.

Results: A total of 667 patients in 1970 through 1973 and 829 patients in 1991 through 1993 were recorded. The total annual incidence per 100,000 rose from 221 to 250 (P = .0173). The total rate for men increased nonsignificantly from 183 to 209 and for women from 258 to 284. Significant increases were observed for men aged 50 to 59 years and for women aged 50 to 69 years; for persons over 70 years, the rates slightly declined. The case-fatality rate at 1 month declined significantly, from 49% to 30%.

Conclusions: A remarkable increase in the incidence and decline in the case-fatality rate of first-ever stroke was observed in Tartu, Estonia. The increase of incidence for those younger than 70 years could be due to the increased prevalence of risk factors. The decline in case fatality could theoretically be related to better management of secondary complications.