Contributions of the proximate determinants to fertility change in Botswana

Abstract

This study uses Bongaarts' model to examine the relative contributions of three proximate determinants (non-marriage, contraceptive use and postpartum infecundability) to fertility change using data from the 1984 and 1988 Botswana Family and Health Surveys. Breast-feeding is shown to be the most important proximate determinant of fertility, followed by contraceptive use, and finally non-marriage, both in 1984 and 1988. However, contraceptive use increased between 1984 and 1988, leading to fertility decline over this period. Marriage is the least important proximate determinant of fertility, probably due to the high prevalence of premarital childbearing. Other factors such as induced abortion could have played a major role in the fertility decline but their effect could not be estimated due to lack of accurate data.

PIP: In recent years, some countries in sub-Saharan Africa, such as Botswana, Kenya, and Zimbabwe, have experienced declines in fertility. The author investigated the factors leading to the decline in fertility in Botswana. Bongaarts' model and data from the 1984 and 1988 Botswana Family and Health Surveys were used to examine the relative contributions of non-marriage, contraceptive use, and postpartum infecundability to fertility change. Breast feeding was identified as the most important proximate determinant of fertility, followed by contraceptive use, and non-marriage, in both 1984 and 1988. The extent of contraceptive use increased over the period 1984-88, supporting fertility decline. Marriage is the least important proximate determinant of fertility, most likely due to the high prevalence of premarital childbearing. The author further notes that factors such as induced abortion may have played a major role in the fertility decline, but their effect could not be estimated due to the lack of accurate data.