Paleodemography: expectancy and false hope

Abstract

From parent populations (N = 50,000) stochastically generated, representing different levels of correlation (r) between the age at death and a hypothetical biological indicator (r = 0.8-0.98), reference samples and target demographic samples are randomly drawn. Two iterative techniques, proportional fitting procedure and Bayesian, are used to estimate from the reference samples the age distribution of the targets. Due to the random fluctuations of the pattern of aging, both in the reference and target samples, these techniques converge only in expectation toward the true value of a distribution, but not in practice for any particular realization. Nevertheless, these techniques allow the estimation of the average of an age distribution, even if its shape is unknown. Under the hypothesis that the target sample is drawn from a stationary population, this average represents the life expectancy at 20 years (plus 20 years). Using this mean age at death for the adults and the juvenility index at death (D5-14/D20-omega), a new set of paleodemographic estimators were derived from 40 archaic life tables. For a hypothesized stable population, they give the life expectancy at birth and at 20 years, and the probability of death at 1 and 5 years.