Age-period-cohort analysis of motor vehicle mortality in Taiwan, 1974-1992

Abstract

The aim of this study was to examine the effects of age, calendar period of death and birth cohort in motor vehicle mortality in Taiwan over the period 1974-1992. A log-linear model modified from the method of Osmond and Gardner (Stat. Med. 1: 245-259; 1982) was used. Age turned out to be a significant predictor of motor vehicle mortality. The most risky group (over 70 years) had 27.1 and 16.3 times the mortality of the least risky group (5-9 years, 10-14 years) for males and females respectively. The period effect showed a continuously increasing mortality trend since 1974 in females. The pattern in males is similar except that it has slightly leveled off in recent years. The birth cohorts at the highest risk of motor vehicle death were those born between 1979 and 1983 for both sexes. However, males born between 1929 and 1933 also had a high mortality. This analysis provided a better understanding of the trend of mortality from motor vehicle crashes.