Estimating demand for emergency transportation

Abstract

Current and future demands for emergency transportation services are estimated relative to actual and potential use by the population at risk. Correct and incorrect utilization are defined by matching levels of responses (MICU, BEA, Transfer Vehicle, Nonemergency Vehicle, Transport/Private Vehicle) to the level to severity (Life-threat, Urgent, Routine, Transfer, Dry Run). From these definitions and data available from emergency facilities, demand and need are calcualted. Multiple regression models are developed for estimating future demand. Data from a rural county is then used with the models to develop the predictive equations. In both cases, five significant variables explain over 90 per cent of the variation in number of calls for emergency transportation services.